Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
329 FXUS65 KRIW 271133 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 533 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions and warming trend through mid week. - Snowmelt will lead to possible river rises as well. - Some unsettled weather for late week and into the early weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1239 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024 Current IR depicts mainly clear skies across the CWA with some streaking upper level clouds spilling over a building ridge through the Pacific Northwest. This ridge will continue to strengthen through mid week with increasing convergence aloft. With it will come dry conditions and a warming trend through Wednesday. Afternoon high temperatures into the 70s east of the Divide Monday with 60s to the west. Tuesday will see some 80s to the east and even 70s west becoming more widespread on both sides of the Divide come Wednesday. With the warming temperatures will come increasing snowmelt. This will bring increasing river flooding risk with rises in the lower valleys and basins. Nothing is progged to reach any critical stages at this point but will need a close eye to be had on in the coming days. The aforementioned upper level ridge will begin to progress eastward into the upper Great Plains with a deepening trough coming down from an upper level low out of the GOA into the Pacific Northwest Wednesday. This will bring a bit of an unsettled pattern for the northern Rockies through the end of the work week and into next weekend but details are not concise at this point in time. Most models are in agreement with the bulk of the energy staying to the north into Montana skirting northern portions of the CWA. Regardless, there will be some widely scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms to contend with by week`s end for much of the area, especially for northern sections of the CWA. Regardless, this pattern will bring down the temperatures back to more seasonable for this time of year heading into June to go along with these sporadic precipitation chances. Induced upper level ridging will push across for the later half of the weekend and into the following week. The next big thing to keep an eye on will be a much more potent low that longer term models are progging to come down out of the GOA with possible impacts for the middle of the first week of June. This will all be dependent on how far south the main finger of the PFJ will descend and what kind of PVA that will accompany it. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 532 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024 High pressure will keep conditions VFR/SKC through the TAF period. A breeze will develop at KBPI/KPNA/KRKS/KCPR Monday afternoon, with light wind prevailing at all terminals by Monday evening. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Lowe AVIATION...Rowe