791
FXUS65 KRIW 301726
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1126 AM MDT Thu May 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The end of the week looks dry and a bit cooler in the wake of
  Wednesday`s system. Then, slight chances for thunderstorms
  Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. None of these days looks like a
  significant convective day, though.

- A warmup will occur this weekend and it will be warm to hot
  across the area into next week any beyond. This will lead to
  rapid mountain snowmelt, especially next week, so river
  flooding will be a concern.

- Long-range model guidance continues to indicate a hot and dry
  period beginning late next week as a dominant ridge sets up
  over the western US. It wouldn`t be surprising if several
  lower elevations hit 90 degrees F.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1257 AM MDT Thu May 30 2024

In the wake of Wednesday`s system it will be cooler today and
tomorrow, but still mild with highs in the 60s and 70s. Another
slight chance (20-30%) of rain showers/thunderstorms this weekend
into Monday as another quick moving shortwave and an upper-low will
slide through the Cowboy State. Minor river flooding is possible (30-
40%) as we head into next week, with warming temperatures on the way.

The weather systems this weekend into next week will all be quick
moving and weak, so not expecting big precip makers or highly
impactful weather into next week. It will be fairly breezy for most
locations each afternoon well into next week before a highly
amplified ridge builds across the western US. The breezy conditions,
combined with low RH will lead to elevated fire weather conditions
late this week through this weekend, although greenup will limit
this threat. Timing of the development of an amplified ridge that
model guidance was indicating for next week remains uncertain as
model guidance is struggling to come into agreement, but it will be
sometime next week. Regardless of the active pattern temperatures
will not drop much this weekend into next week as each
trough/shortwave should stay on the northern edge of the area as
they pass through the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Thu May 30 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period at all terminals.
Skies will remain mostly clear across the region through the period
as well, with only FEW to SCT high clouds. Breezy west-northwest
winds will develop early in the period at most terminals. Gusts 20
to 25kts will be common through the afternoon. Winds then decrease
to light and variable drainage flows toward sunset and light and
variable winds will prevail through much of the rest of the period.
A weak boundary will bring mid-level cigs into KCOD and KWRL this
afternoon. A few isolated rain showers may be possible with this
boundary at these terminals (20% chance at KCOD and 10% chance at
KWRL), but due to low confidence in these showers, have left
mentions out of the TAFs. The BKN mid-level decks will likely (80%
chance) persist through much of the rest of the period for the
aforementioned terminals.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rowe
AVIATION...Hensley