Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
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869 FXUS65 KRIW 280904 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 304 AM MDT Tue May 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated rain showers/thunderstorms develop across southern and western Wyoming this afternoon. Most locations will remain dry, with mostly clear skies and warm temperatures. - A weather system brings more widespread rain shower/thunderstorm chances to the area Wednesday afternoon. It will also be breezy across the area. - The end of the week looks dry and a bit cooler after the system passes on Wednesday. Then, slight chances for thunderstorms on Sunday. - Long-range model guidance continues to indicate a hot and dry period beginning next week as a dominant ridge sets up over the western US. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 303 AM MDT Tue May 28 2024 A shortwave associated with an upper-low off the coast of British Columbia will approach the Cowboy State today, which will bring isolated rain showers/thunderstorms to southern and western portions of the area this afternoon/evening. Wind gusts up to 30 mph will occur with showers/storms. Temperatures will be noticeably warmer today, with many locations east of the Continental Divide getting close or hitting 80 degrees this afternoon. Lower elevations west of the Continental Divide will reach low to middle 70s this afternoon. The shortwave will pass through on Wednesday with more widespread rain showers and thunderstorms. The shortwave will bring breezy conditions to the forecast area on Wednesday as well. After this system moves through it will be warm and mostly dry through Saturday. Another slight chance (20-30%) of rain showers/thunderstorms on Sunday as another quick moving shortwave will slide through the Cowboy State. Some minor river flooding is possible (30-40%) by the middle of this week due to mountain snowmelt as temperatures warm up today and tomorrow. Overall, it will be an unsettled weather pattern with shortwaves in mostly zonal flow through this weekend. The shortwaves will all be quick moving and weak, so not expecting big precip makers or highly impactful weather into next week. It will be fairly breezy for most locations beginning Wednesday and continuing through this weekend. The breezy conditions, combined with low RH will lead to elevated fire weather conditions later this week through this weekend, although greenup will limit this threat. Early next week weather models are indicating a large ridge will develop across the western US, which would really heat things up and keep it quite dry across the Cowboy State. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 959 PM MDT Mon May 27 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with SKC skies by sunrise. Isolated convection will be possible Tuesday afternoon for areas west of the Divide, however confidence remains too low to include in any terminal forecast. Wind gusts up to 20 kt will be possible at these terminals from this convection between 21Z and 02Z. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rowe AVIATION...LaVoie