Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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793 FXUS61 KRLX 242326 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 726 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Chances for showers and storms prevail through at least midweek. Additional rounds of rain possible late in the week into the weekend as well. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 720 PM Tuesday... Watching thunderstorms across eastern KY that are making their way towards the forecast area this evening. Quite a few of these storms have a boisterous streak having been severe warned for damaging winds and hail. The tornadic activity has remained far to our west in KY/OH and to our east across southern VA. Overall,they appear to be weakening as they approach the area. Still, some storms may pack damaging winds, heavy rain and hail early this evening. Will have to remain vigilant though as these storms enter our area in the next few hours as a low-level jet aloft is allowing for 40-50kts of 0-6km wind shear and 100-200m2/s2 of helicity which could certainly allow for storm longevity and rotation. However, cloud LCL heights have risen over the past few hours, above 1,000m for most locations, and there is a moderate cap over the area due to cloud cover, so confidence has lessened for tornadoes and widespread severe weather. The threat for severe weather and an isolated tornado or two while not significant, is also not zero, so it is important to remain weather aware this evening. This risk in particular covers our KY and VA counties, southern OH and also the metro valley and southern coalfields of WV where there is a slight (level 2/5) risk for severe weather. As of 152 PM Tuesday... A deepening upper-level low pressure system over the IL and IN, will bring areas of vorticity around its periphery across the OH Valley and WV through tonight. A quasi-stationary frontal boundary over WV will serve as a focus for additional convection tonight. Hi-res models suggest next round of showers and storms lifting north across southern WV and SW VA this evening affecting mainly the eastern half of the area, along and near the mountains. Another round is forecasted to arrive to the Tri- state area (OH/KY/WV) and extreme southern WV during the predawn hours Wednesday morning. Localized heavy downpours will be possible with the heavier storms. A marginal risk for excessive rainfall exist for the entire area through tonight. A slight risk for severe thunderstorms exist for portions of WV, northeast KY and southeast OH through tonight. The main threat will be damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes. While the area remains under the warm sector of a dissipating surface low pressure system, dewpoints will remain elevated. Expect tonight`s temperatures to range from the mid to upper 60s across the lowlands, into the low 60s central mountains, and mid 50s higher elevations of our northeast mountains. Abundant cloudiness and expected cooling showers should keep warm Max temperatures, ranging from the lower 80s lowlands, into the mid 70s central mountains, and mid 60s higher elevations of our northeast mountains. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 225 PM Tuesday... Still looking a little drier overall on Thursday as upper low continues to sag south across the Lower Mississippi River Valley, taking bulk of moisture south and west with it. Precipitation, and winds, will ramp back up again for Friday as the remnants of Tropical Storm Helene move onshore and northward towards the region, eventually weakening and becoming absorbed into upper low across Lower MS Valley Friday evening. Ample moisture, with PW values progged to rise to 2 inches or more across the area, will help to provide some beneficial rain to the area, particularly across the mountains from upslope effects. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 225 PM Tuesday... Unsettled weather will continue in the extended period as the upper low continues to spread moisture northward into the area, with increasing chances for precipitation as we head into next week and the low gradually lifts northeast, eventually opening into a wave as it moves through the area. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 720 PM Tuesday... Watching some strong to severe thunderstorms to our southwest that will be making their way into the forecast area with in the next few hours. Some storms may be strong to severe with heavy rain, damaging wind gusts, hail and the possibility for an isolated tornado. IFR restrictions or lower are possible with any storms. Expecting activity to taper off from southwest to northeast by ~06z, with scattered chances for showers remaining overnight. Low stratus and some patchy fog is anticipated across the area in the wake of these showers and storms, so most every site has MVFR/IFR CIG and VIS restrictions after ~06z. Models show another round of showers and storms approaching from the southwest between ~11-12z tomorrow morning which will move across the area through the morning. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected as well, with likely chances more confined across the mountains and foothills. Winds will remain light and southerly this evening and tomorrow, except in and around any thunderstorms where they could be erratic and gusty. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and thunderstorms may vary from forecast. Location, timing and intensity of low stratus/patchy fog overnight may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M L M L M EKN CONSISTENCY H M M L H M M L M L L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M L M CKB CONSISTENCY M L M M M H M L L L L M AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms into Wednesday evening. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ/LTC SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...LTC