Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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478 FXUS63 KSGF 011041 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 541 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Most areas remain dry today, though residual flooding will remain a concern for locations that received significant rainfall yesterday. - Warm and muggy summer-like pattern Sunday into midweek with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. - A pattern change for the latter portion of the week looks to bring drier conditions. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 The well-advertised MCV will continue to meander north and east through central Missouri early this morning. A band of moderate to heavy rain that developed along a locally-modified baroclinic boundary dumped a considerable amount of rain over portions of Douglas, Webster, and Wright counties overnight, with some locations receiving well over 6 inches of rain near Mansfield. Therefore, while the precip will shift east of them today, residual flooding will remain a concern. Lingering showers will remain possible across portions of the eastern Ozarks today through mid-afternoon. Additional flooding is not expected with this activity with forecast totals less than a half inch. Elsewhere will remain dry and may even see a few peaks of sunshine in the afternoon. A few areas of dense fog have developed across far southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas early this morning where cloud cover has cleared more quickly, prompting a Dense Fog Advisory. This fog should lift during the morning hours. Fog development again appears possible, if not likely, tonight into early Sunday morning given the subsidence behind the low, light winds, and abundant low- level moisture. The 00Z HREF probabilities of visibilities less than 1 mile are in the 40-60% range and highest across central Missouri where they will likely have a longer period of clearing. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Overview: The long term forecast is rather messy and complex with numerous transient shortwaves providing chances for showers and thunderstorms that will be conditional upon prior convection. Temperatures will be seasonably warm through mid-week, and conditions will feel very muggy before a pattern change comes by week`s end. Sunday-Monday: For Sunday, a decaying MCS across the Plains will approach southeast Kansas by the early morning hours. Most guidance shows this activity falling apart by the time it reaches our area with decreasing instability. However, any MCV formation would impact rain chances. It is also possible we see some weakly forced pulse convection in the afternoon as diurnal heating erodes inhibition. Given all the uncertainty, PoPs have been kept fairly low (20-40%) and largely kept along and west of the Highway 65 corridor. A quick-moving shortwave trough is progged to move through the Upper Midwest Sunday with its attendant surface low dragging a cold front through the Plains. This feature will be the impetus for possibly more widespread convection late Sunday night into Monday morning, though it will likely be weakening as it pushes into our area. By Monday afternoon, a remnant outflow boundary may provide forcing for additional thunderstorm development. With diurnal heating and given a very moist atmosphere, a few strong to severe pulsers will be possible. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined most of our area in a Marginal risk. Tuesday-Wednesday: Ensemble guidance depicts fairly good agreement in developing a more prominent upper-level wave through the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Tuesday into Wednesday. Solutions diverge when it comes to timing, with the ENS featuring a slower evolution compared to GEFS and GEPS. These details will influence storm mode, available instability, and ultimately, any severe potential. CSU machine learning products and CIPS severe analogs continue to indicate some potential for severe weather in our area with this system, mainly for Tuesday. Wednesday appears to be a transition day to a northwest flow pattern and drier conditions. Thursday-Friday: LREF clusters largely agree in broad upper-level ridging to amplify over the western/central CONUS, though there remain fairly large discrepancies over the exact longitudinal positioning. Ultimately, where this ridge sets up and how the pattern evolves will have implications on the sensible weather for our area, but overall the pattern looks quieter for a bit. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 532 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 LIFR ceilings are largely confined to far southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas; MVFR elsewhere. Ceilings will gradually lift to VFR levels by early to mid-afternoon. Fog will again be possible late tonight into early Sunday morning toward the end of the TAF period, though currently the best chances appear to be just north and east of the TAF sites. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for KSZ097-101. MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ077-088- 093-094-101-102. && $$ SHORT TERM...Didio LONG TERM...Didio AVIATION...Didio