268
FXUS64 KSHV 240528
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1228 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

The SPC has issued SVR TS watch #298 including our I-30 corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Well the question of a left turn in W AR or across SW AR for the
expected new convection has been determined by a higher power. So
to update the evening update, we have returned "some maybe
severe" to our posted likely pops across I-30 and north. Large
hail and damaging winds will be primary issues to be watched, but
it is springtime, so keep the NOAA WX radio bedside for those in
our SVR Thunderstorm watch area into the overnight. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

As of this writing, the daytime hours Saturday look to largely be
dry. As a more robust threat for severe weather takes shape to our
west and north, impacts may manage to graze the northernmost zones
of the ArkLaTex, primarily along and north of the I-30 corridor, and
mostly likely following the pattern of recent days with impacts
beginning after 00Z Sunday, continuing through the night and coming
to an end by Sunday morning.

Sunday and Monday will see a continuation of this timing pattern, as
the morning and afternoon will likely be dry, with the best chances
for some scattered showers and storms along our northeast fringes
near or after sundown, with more widespread impacts possible Monday
afternoon and overnight with the frontal passage.

The weekend will see persistent southerly flow reinforce the warming
trend experienced this week, with widespread highs in the low 90s
across the region and an increase in highs climbing into the middle
90s, in concert with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, these will
make for uncomfortable to oppressive humidity for portions of the
region before a regime change finally takes effect.

Said pattern shift looks to manifest during the day Monday, as the
upper level troughing associated with the surface boundary finally
gets nudged north and east by a building ridge out of the west. This
transitional pattern will allow for northwesterly flow to return
area lows to the 60s and highs to the 80s through at least the
middle of next week, followed by a fairly quick return to the 90s by
the end of this extended forecast period, with mostly dry conditions
through Tuesday and Wednesday and the next notable chance of
rainfall arriving before dawn next Thursday.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

South winds 10 to 15 knots to persist through the terminal
forecast period ending 25/06Z. Low-level moisture will bring MVFR
ceilings to the region from 25/09Z through 25/15Z with ceilings
lifting to VFR thereafter. Otherwise, VCTS conditions expected
after 25/02Z across TYR/GGG/TXK/ELD terminals with tempo TSRA
conditions expected across TYR/TXK/ELD after 25/04Z. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  74  93  76 /   0  30   0   0
MLU  93  72  93  74 /   0  20  10   0
DEQ  86  68  87  70 /  10  40  10  10
TXK  90  71  90  74 /  10  50  10  10
ELD  90  69  90  71 /  10  40  10   0
TYR  92  72  93  76 /  10  30   0   0
GGG  92  71  92  75 /  10  30   0   0
LFK  94  73  95  75 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...05