603
FXUS64 KSHV 240258
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
958 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New UPDATE, SHORT TERM...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 939 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Lowered evening pops and raised a few overnight lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 939 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Mostly cloudy with fewer low clouds across our region and mostly
middeck or anvil blowoff cirrus that will be improving for most,
but daybreak will see more widespread low decks. If not, then some
patchy light fog perhaps, which we have introduced with this
update by daybreak. The diurnal convection apparently went to
watch the game, but SPC has just issued MD#920 right up the Red
River Valley in prep for the sfc/upper low swinging over the
plains. The models all show this nocturnal push affecting our I-30
corridor by midnight and through daybreak to some varied extent.
We have pared back on the high pops/ mention of severe and
overall qpf going forward for this expected new convection on the
whole. The new 24/00Z NAM develops this convection between OK/TX,
but left turns in W rather than S AR. So we will wait and see
what really happens. The 18Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF both swing qpf into
N LA overnight with not much fireworks overnight, like 24 hrs
ago. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

As of this writing, the daytime hours Saturday look to largely be
dry. As a more robust threat for severe weather takes shape to our
west and north, impacts may manage to graze the northernmost zones
of the ArkLaTex, primarily along and north of the I-30 corridor, and
mostly likely following the pattern of recent days with impacts
beginning after 00Z Sunday, continuing through the night and coming
to an end by Sunday morning.

Sunday and Monday will see a continuation of this timing pattern, as
the morning and afternoon will likely be dry, with the best chances
for some scattered showers and storms along our northeast fringes
near or after sundown, with more widespread impacts possible Monday
afternoon and overnight with the frontal passage.

The weekend will see persistent southerly flow reinforce the warming
trend experienced this week, with widespread highs in the low 90s
across the region and an increase in highs climbing into the middle
90s, in concert with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, these will
make for uncomfortable to oppressive humidity for portions of the
region before a regime change finally takes effect.

Said pattern shift looks to manifest during the day Monday, as the
upper level troughing associated with the surface boundary finally
gets nudged north and east by a building ridge out of the west. This
transitional pattern will allow for northwesterly flow to return
area lows to the 60s and highs to the 80s through at least the
middle of next week, followed by a fairly quick return to the 90s by
the end of this extended forecast period, with mostly dry conditions
through Tuesday and Wednesday and the next notable chance of
rainfall arriving before dawn next Thursday.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 844 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

For the 24/00Z TAF period, VFR conditions prevail to begin the
period with the exception of KTXK where MVFR cigs have already
settled in this evening. This trend of lower cigs will continue
across the remainder of our airspace later this evening through
the overnight hours with widespread MVFR cigs and patchy IFR cigs
through mid to late morning. Cigs should return to VFR by early
afternoon with southerly winds between 10-15 kts on Friday. Any
convection should remain isolated and have only included VCTS at a
few sites to account for this possibility.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  93  74  93 /  40   0  30   0
MLU  74  93  72  93 /  50   0  20  10
DEQ  67  86  68  87 /  60  10  40  10
TXK  70  90  71  90 /  60  10  50  10
ELD  66  90  69  90 /  50  10  40  10
TYR  74  92  72  93 /  40  10  30   0
GGG  72  92  71  92 /  40  10  30   0
LFK  75  94  73  95 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...19