Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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885 FXUS64 KSHV 240255 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 955 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 942 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 As of 930 PM, temperatures remain in the upper 70s under mostly cloudy skies. Overnight temperatures remain on track toward a range of minimums in the lower 60s/mid-70s with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms areawide near a slow-moving frontal boundary across the area. With weather and observed trends continuing as anticipated, forecast grid adjustments were not necessary at this time. /16/ && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday Night) Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 A cool front, currently located along a line from near Jacksonville Texas to Prescott Arkansas, will continue to slowly push eastward this afternoon into the region. However, upper ridging across the Lower Mississippi Valley and SE CONUS will slow its eastward progression, stalling the boundary across the region tonight. There had been convection along the boundary all morning, but it has diminished greatly in coverage and intensity over the past few hours. But, additional development has started to fire along the boundary, mainly across SW Arkansas. Ahead of the boundary, an isolated shower or two can`t be ruled out. Although it appears a pre-frontal trough has push through the region, clearing the CU field and leaving behind mostly clear skies. The front will bisect the region tonight as it stalls out. Some additional showers or thunderstorms will be possible along the boundary, but short-term models are keeping convection in more of an isolated or broken manner. Expect the temperature gradient to remain overnight, with lows in the low to mid 60s along and north of Interstate 30, and low to mid 70s over the remainder of the area. Models continue to suggest that the front will continue to hang across the region tomorrow, maybe advancing to along a line from Lufkin Texas to Monroe Louisiana. Slight to chance POPs will remain over the region near the boundary. The expected cloud cover and potential convection should yield slightly cooler temps, with highs generally in the mid to upper 80s areawide. The front should finally push through the region by tomorrow night, bringing slightly cooler temps, with lows in the 60s areawide. /20/ && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Another cool front is expected to move into the area on Wednesday, bringing a return in widespread rain chances. Behind the front, cooler and dry conditions will return, with lows Wednesday night ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s. The forecast gets interesting across the lower 48 on Thursday, as models continue to suggest the arrival of a strong landfalling hurricane. The good news is that a closed trough across the Ozarks will steer the storm away from our area. Unfortunately, it looks like the state of Florida will experience the main force of the system. As the storm moves across Florida into the SE CONUS, models suggest it will undergo a Fujiwara interaction with the aforementioned Ozarks trough. Essentially, this means the remnants of the landfalling hurricane will move in close proximity of the larger Ozarks trough, and then try to circulate around it before it gets absorb forming a larger closed trough. That newly formed larger trough will continue to meander across the Ozarks region on Friday and Saturday, bringing some wrap-around precip to the region and northerly flow. The precip, cloud cover, and northerly winds should yield cooler temperatures across the region during this period, with highs struggling to reach the lower 80s. Upper ridging will start to build into the SW CONUS late Saturday, pushing the closed trough out of the region and bringing back dry conditions to the area Sunday and into Monday of next week. /20/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 619 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 A cold front lingering across the region will allow for an unsettled weather pattern across the region through the forecast period ending 25/00Z. VCSH conditions will be possible across TYR/GGG/SHV/MLU overnight along the front becoming VCTS on Monday afternoon. Additionally, could see MVFR ceilings near daybreak south of the front across LFK. Otherwise, light winds tonight to become west to northwest around 7 knots on Tuesday. /05/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 74 88 68 85 / 20 10 20 20 MLU 73 89 67 83 / 20 30 20 20 DEQ 63 86 61 83 / 20 0 30 20 TXK 68 87 65 83 / 20 0 20 20 ELD 69 86 64 81 / 30 20 10 20 TYR 69 89 67 84 / 20 10 20 20 GGG 69 88 66 83 / 20 10 20 20 LFK 72 88 67 86 / 30 40 30 30 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...13