135
FXUS64 KSHV 261549
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1049 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1041 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Once again today`s high temperature is the primary feature
requiring modifications to the forecast this morning. As of a
quarter until the 16Z hour, temperatures have climbed into the
upper 70s and lower 80s at many area sites. Based on this warming
trend, and not expecting much in the way of cloud cover this
afternoon except for some scattered Cu across our easternmost
zones, while dew points remain comfortably low, have elected to
bump highs up 1-2 degrees, reaching the middle 80s for most of the
ArkLaTex and lower 80s north and east. Otherwise, ingested the
latest several hours worth of temperature and dew point
observations and interpolated through to 00Z.

/26/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Mostly quiet weather is anticipated for the short-term, now that the
trough and cold front have moved through the region. With dry air
filtering into the region, seasonable temperatures are anticipated
the next 36-hours as well. Afternoon highs should range in the low
to mid-80s, with lows tonight dropping into the upper-50s and low-
60s. However, by Friday morning, rain chances will begin to
increase, as Hurricane Helene finally begins to interact with the
closed low to our north in a Fujiwara effect. There are still
question marks regarding how far south the rain will make it, and
how much rain will fall, but look for rain chances to increase by
Friday regardless.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Once friction kicks in, and the two low pressure`s eject into the
midwest, rain chances will quickly decrease into Saturday morning.
Here, the main low pressure looks to anchor, which will keep the
region in north/northwest flow for most of the new workweek. In
turn, this will keep dry and quiet weather in the forecast, with
mostly seasonable temperatures anticipated as well. There are at
least some early indications that this trough over the midwest could
deepen towards next weekend, dropping our temperatures a few more
degrees. However, there currently lacks run to run consistency, with
plenty of time to determine if the first taste of fall is on the
horizon.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 446 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

For the 26/12z TAF update...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
throughout this TAF period. There is a low end chance for a few clouds
to develop this afternoon across portions of the area. For this
reason I have carried over some FEW100 for all terminals around
26/18z and then clearing back to SKC by 27/00z. Winds will be
light and out of the north to northeast this morning before
increasing to around 10 kts and perhaps some slightly stronger
gusts at times. /33/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  63  84  66 /   0   0  10  10
MLU  85  62  82  64 /   0   0  30  20
DEQ  85  58  79  60 /   0   0  20  10
TXK  86  61  81  64 /   0   0  20  10
ELD  83  59  79  61 /   0   0  40  20
TYR  87  60  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  86  60  83  63 /   0   0  10   0
LFK  86  61  85  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...33