Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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945 FXUS64 KSHV 251747 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1247 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1052 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Clearing skies across the heart of the ArkLaTex have allowed temperatures to rapidly warm anywhere from 3-7 degrees in the past hour. A broken to scattered cloud deck building between the I-30 and I-20 corridors should help to limit runaway heating as it slides south and east, thus based on this trajectory, nudged afternoon highs up a bit, but only by a degree or two for most area locations. Isolated to scattered additional convection is possible this afternoon along and south of I-20, likely confined largely to zone south of US-84, which is adequately reflected in the existing wx grids. Otherwise, ingested the latest several hours worth of temperature and dew point observations and interpolated through to 00Z. /26/ && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday) Issued at 206 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to work into the region today, as longwave troughing and our second cold front continue to work south. This trough is very progressive in nature, with rain chances beginning to diminish by the afternoon hours. Once this cold front finally clears the region, expect the rest of the short-term to be very pleasant. Dry conditions should remain into the weekend, with afternoon highs dropping to a much more seasonable feel. The same can be said for overnight lows, with lows dropping into the upper-50s to low-60s. /44/ && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 206 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Rain chances will return to the forecast by late Friday morning, as moisture from now Tropical Storm Helene begins to wrap around the closed low over the midwest. In turn, the best chances for organized rain will be along and north of I-20, with dry conditions south. However, as the low pressure continues to meander NE into the weekend, then the rain chances will shift NE as well. By Sunday, dry conditions will return area-wide, with limited rain chances anticipated for the rest of the long-term. High temperatures will begin to climb by Sunday as well, with highs returning to the mid to upper-80s. However, overnight lows will continue to be quite pleasant, as dry air keeps working into the region under north flow. Overnight lows will likely continue to range in the mid-50s to mid- 60s. /44/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 The combination of a front still mainly stalled across the region and a disturbance aloft swinging across is producing scattered clouds and some ceilings will remain sub VFR (mainly MVFR) through the next few hours. By later this afternoon, the large majority of scattered to broken cloud deck bases should range from 3 to 6 kft. Some isolated convection, mainly showers, are possible across areas at least along and south of I-20 through the afternoon with the potential for any thunderstorms highest at LFK. Potential for considerable impact to operations at any area airport is low enough to keep only "vicinity" mention in the TAFs for now. Otherwise expect east to northeast winds today from 6 to 12 mph to relax some tonight with most clouds clearing out. Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions are anticipated tomorrow with winds from the north at a range from 6 to 12 mph again. /50/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 63 83 63 81 / 0 0 0 20 MLU 62 83 62 80 / 0 0 10 20 DEQ 58 82 59 77 / 0 0 10 40 TXK 60 83 61 78 / 0 0 10 30 ELD 58 81 59 76 / 0 0 10 30 TYR 61 84 61 83 / 0 0 0 10 GGG 61 83 60 81 / 0 0 0 10 LFK 63 83 61 84 / 10 0 0 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...50