Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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968 FXUS64 KSHV 231729 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Decided to make some minor adjustments to POPs and Temps to account for current and forecasted trends. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast remains on track. A cool front, currently located along a line from near Tyler Texas to De Queen Arkansas, will continue to push eastward today into the region. However, upper ridging across the Lower Mississippi Valley and SE CONUS will slow its eastward progression. There has been convection along the boundary all morning, but it has decreased in coverage and intensity over the past couple of hours. Ahead of the boundary can`t rule out some isolated showers with daytime heating, which is already being seen on radar. Although the convection is diminishing, short-term progs suggest some additional development will be possible along the front this afternoon, with the best chances across our SE Oklahoma, NE Texas, and South-Central Arkansas zones. Because of the boundary, rain, and cloud cover, expect a gradient in high temps today. Areas north of a line from Tyler Texas to Prescott Arkansas will struggle to see highs in the mid to upper 80s. The remainder of the region should see highs climb into the lower and possibly mid 90s. /20/ && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday) Issued at 114 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 The first front of the forecast period is beginning to push into the region, with showers and thunderstorms gradually increasing into the afternoon hours. This progression will be slow going, with afternoon highs today still ranging in the mid-80s to low-90s. However, with the influx of clouds, rain chances, and cold air advection, highs tomorrow will drop in the mid and upper-80s area-wide. Rain chances this short-term will also be very dependent on front location, with the better rain chances shifting south of I-20 by tomorrow afternoon. /44/ && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 114 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 By Wednesday, the much deeper trough and closed low will begin working SE through the Plains. This second front should push through the region during the day on Wednesday, leaving much cooler temperatures in its wake. Highs on Thursday will only range in the mid-70s to low-80s, with highs hovering here through Saturday. Rain chances into the weekend will also heavily depend on tropical moisture wrapping around this low, and working back south into the region. At this time, the best chances for rain appear north of I-20, but this will be subject to change as this low meanders as well. The closed low will eventually pull back to the northeast, likely associated with friction from the tropical disturbance, settling somewhere in the Midwest. Here, it will keep winds from the north, and dry air filtering into the region. While afternoon highs will begin climbing through the weekend, overnight lows will continue to range in the upper-50s and mid-60s due to the dry air. /44/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 606 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 For the 23/12z TAF update...A weak cold front extends from Terrell, TX to Hochatown, OK to Clarksville, AR this morning. In association with this cold front, showers and thunderstorms are moving along a very similar line and starting to move into our area. Models indicate that this activity should diminish before there is any significant impact to any terminals, however, I have included some VCSH to KTYR and KGGG, as some of it could get close to them. As this morning`s showers diminish, there should be some redevelopment by this afternoon that could bring some thunderstorms to more terminals. /33/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 93 73 87 68 / 20 20 30 30 MLU 92 73 89 66 / 20 10 40 40 DEQ 82 62 85 60 / 50 30 10 30 TXK 87 67 86 64 / 40 30 20 30 ELD 93 68 86 63 / 20 30 30 20 TYR 84 68 88 66 / 30 20 30 20 GGG 88 69 87 65 / 30 30 30 30 LFK 92 73 89 68 / 20 20 40 30 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...33