004
FXUS64 KSJT 241733
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1233 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 421 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Radar imagery (as of 430 AM) continues to show the scatted rain
showers and/or thunderstorms across the region, especially near
Abilene and Brownwood. This activity is expected to continue
through this evening intermittently. Lighter rainfall totals of a
tenth of an inch to around a quarter of an inch are expected.
Chances will remain lower (20-30 percent) given the lower
coverage. Otherwise, some areas of patchy fog are possible this
morning in addition to the rain. Some locations, including San
Angelo, and Junction are reporting some minor visibility
reductions to around 5 statute mile or so. This will hopefully
clear up quickly after sunrise.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

-Dry weather with warming temperatures

No significant changes in the long term from the previous
forecast. Early Wednesday, an upper level low will be moving
southeast from the Midwest into the mid-south region, and will
drive a cold front into the area. Models still show the potential
for a few showers and thunderstorms during the morning hours
Wednesday along this front, mainly south and east of a Brownwood
to Sonora line, so have kept some 20% PoPs in the forecast from
12Z to 18Z Wednesday. Wednesday through early next week, models
are in fairly good agreement that the aforementioned low will
drift from the deep south back to the north towards the Great
Lakes region as an upper level ridge remains anchored over the
southwestern U. S. That will keep our area underneath
northwesterly flow, and generally dry conditions will temperatures
near or a few degrees above normal through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

MVFR ceilings are scattering out of the area, leaving VFR
conditions for the rest of today. Morning storms have cleared out,
but we could see additional showers and thunderstorms for a few
hours this afternoon and evening for KJCT and KBBD. A cold front
will move through overnight, turning winds from the north.
Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the
front, but right now uncertainty is too high to include the
mention of storms for most of the TAF sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     65  82  57  83 /  20  10   0   0
San Angelo  66  83  57  84 /  10   0   0   0
Junction    66  85  57  84 /  20  10   0   0
Brownwood   66  81  57  83 /  30  10   0   0
Sweetwater  64  82  59  83 /  10   0   0   0
Ozona       66  84  56  84 /  10   0   0   0
Brady       67  82  57  82 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...AP