837
FXUS64 KSJT 211830
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
130 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Our area will be under southwest flow aloft today and tonight
with an upper level ridge to our east over the lower Mississippi
Valley/Gulf Coast states, and a broad upper trough over most of
the western half of the CONUS. A dryline will mix east across at
least the northern and western parts of our area today. By late
afternoon, the dryline should extend from east of Wichita Falls to
Putnam to just west of Sonora. A few thunderstorms are possible
late this afternoon and evening along the dryline. Carrying slight
chance PoP for the area generally east of an Albany to Ballinger
to Eden line. Cap strength will be an issue and may not have any
storm development. However, with strong instability and effective
bulk shear around 50 knots, have a conditional risk for large to
very large hail and localized damaging wind gusts with any storms
that can develop. Temperatures will be hot again today, especially
behind the dryline. But some presence of high clouds should have
a slight limiting effect. Expect highs to range from the lower to
mid 90s in our eastern counties, to around 100 degrees in the
western Concho Valley (including San Angelo) and along parts of
the I-10 corridor.

The dryline will retreat west and northwest of our area
overnight, and low-level moisture transport with southerly winds
will result in warm and humid conditions overnight. Lows will be
71-74 degrees across our area. Expect low cloud development from
the south late tonight, to the I-20 corridor by daybreak.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

An unsettled pattern looks to continue Wednesday night through
Thursday.  The front that will have pushed into central Texas on
Wednesday should retreat northward on Thursday morning and allow a
warm and unstable airmass to persist over the region. Thunderstorm
chances on Thursday should be focused mainly across north-central
Texas, thanks to mid-level impulses embedded in the quasi-zonal
flow. However, there will be some potential for severe storms
across the eastern Big Country and down to Brownwood. Further
southwest, storms will struggle to develop given the lack of upper
dynamics.

A hot and dry pattern is likely to take over for Friday through
Sunday.  Although the upper-level pattern should remain generally
the same, the next couple of systems moving through the country`s
midsection are likely to bring a drier airmass into west central
Texas during this time.  A weak frontal boundary looks to stall
around I-20 on Friday.  This is likely to hold temperatures below
100 degrees for the Big Country on Friday afternoon, but no such
luck for areas further south.  Otherwise, searing, and way-too-soon
triple-digit heat should take over for the holiday weekend.

Getting into early next week, models show that a stronger cold front
should drop into Texas for Monday and Tuesday. There is still
uncertainty in this solution, evidenced by the MEX guidance showing
highs in the upper 80s and the ECX guidance showing 100. Regardless,
we should hopefully see an increase in clouds and chances for
showers. If nothing else, the front could provide at least some
temporary relief from the heat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

MVFR ceilings are clearing out, leaving VFR conditions for the
rest of today. Winds could briefly become northwest this
afternoon, before switching back to the south. Thunderstorms this
evening should stay to the east of the area. Low clouds are
expected to return for KJCT, KSOA, KBBD, and possibly KSJT
overnight and into tomorrow morning. A cold front will move south
through the area tomorrow, switching winds to the north.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     71  87  68  92 /  10  50  20  20
San Angelo  73  95  70  98 /  10  20  20  10
Junction    75  95  71  98 /  10  30  20  10
Brownwood   73  91  70  89 /  20  50  30  30
Sweetwater  69  87  67  96 /  10  50  20  10
Ozona       73  96  70  99 /  10  10  20  10
Brady       73  93  70  91 /  10  40  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...AP