Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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105 FXUS64 KSJT 220542 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1242 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...Cold front arrives tomorrow afternoon and evening, with showers and thunderstorms developing... The main item of interest the next 24 hours will be the arrival of a weak cold front later tomorrow afternoon and evening and increasing rain chances. An upper level shortwave will be situated across the central and southern Rockies by tomorrow morning and will track east into the Plains by tomorrow afternoon. At the surface, an associated cold front will drop south across the area tomorrow afternoon and evening. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front as it tracks south across the area, with the best chance for rainfall tomorrow afternoon from the Concho Valley northward into the Big Country. The airmass will be plenty moist, with precipitable water values near 2 inches, which will contribute to heavy downpours and a threat for localized flooding. As was previously mentioned, widespread severe weather is not anticipated, but marginal instability and shear will support a few strong to locally severe storms capable of producing damaging winds and large hail during the afternoon and early evening hours. Temperatures will be mild tonight, along with some low clouds develop towards daybreak, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Highs tomorrow will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s, although cooler temperatures will begin filtering in behind the front across the Big Country by late afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Saturday) Issued at 153 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...Rain chances and cool temperatures to continue through Wednesday. Drier with a slow warming trend expected Thursday into the weekend... An upper low over Colorado is expected to open into a trough as it moves into the Central Great Plains late Sunday into Monday. This will put our area in the troughing regime with an upper high generally located to our southeast along the Texas Gulf Coast. At the surface, a cold front will be pushing into our area with showers and storms ongoing by 00Z Monday. The front will progress through most of the area by 12Z Monday. There is expected to be a lull in activity for much of day on Monday as the front slowly retreats back to the north and zonal flow aloft prevails. Isolated to scattered chances for precipitation remains as an embedded shortwave impulse aloft cannot be ruled out. Convective activity begins to ramp back up Tuesday as a weak secondary trough is expected to develop just to our north and west with the frontal boundary still in our general area. Moisture will still be abundant with above normal pWats across the area in the 1.4+ inch range. This activity will not be as focused along the front (as compared to Sunday) and is expected to be more scattered in nature leading to widespread chance PoPs through early Wednesday. As the surface forcing begins to weaken across our area with the front pushing south, activity will become more nebulous and should eventually come to an end by late Wednesday. Temperatures during this timeframe will be well below normal for this time of year with highs Monday and Wednesday being the coolest in the mid 70s to low 80s. Highs Tuesday will be a bit warmer with the front drifting back north in the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows will be cool in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Uncertainty in the upper pattern begins to take shape later in the week. Mid range models tend to agree that an upper low will drop out of the Upper Plains and Midwest by late Wednesday into Thursday and should stall out. Where exactly the low stalls out remains a point of contention. The general consensus though is that much drier air will filter in behind the cold front Wednesday and that West Central Texas will be on the backside of this upper low in an area of greater subsidence. Most ensemble members of both the GFS and ECMWF keep our area free of precipitation from Thursday through next weekend. We will see a gradual warming trend, largely due to the 850 mb thermal ridge slowly working its way back into our area as we will still be seeing a dry northerly wind at the surface. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s with overnight lows getting slightly cooler in the mid 50s to low 60s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 MVFR ceilings are expected to move into all sites except KABI by 12Z Sunday morning. These low clouds are expected to scatter out or rise to VFR heights by 17Z. Later in the day, a cold front will move into the area, with TSRA expected to develop along the front. KABI will be first impacted between 18Z and 21Z, with KSJT next between 21Z and 00Z late tomorrow afternoon. KBBD, KSOA, and KJCT should not see storms hit until after 00Z. If storms move in faster than currently expected, these times will have to be adjusted by future forecasts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 89 58 75 62 / 60 70 30 30 San Angelo 91 61 76 63 / 50 80 40 30 Junction 91 65 82 65 / 10 40 30 10 Brownwood 92 63 78 64 / 20 50 40 30 Sweetwater 87 58 75 63 / 70 70 20 30 Ozona 88 63 77 64 / 30 70 40 20 Brady 91 64 78 64 / 20 50 30 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....50 AVIATION...20