315
FXUS62 KTBW 261803
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
203 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Now Category 2 Hurricane Helene remains the dominant feature for
our weather through tomorrow. Helene is centered in the Southern
Gulf of Mexico. It is forecast to rapidly strengthen through today
as the storm moves north to northeast with an increasing forward
speed, eventually making landfall in the Florida Big Bend Region.
Widespread impacts are expected across West-Central and Southwest
Florida beginning early today and lasting through Friday morning.

* Storm Surge - Life threatening storm surge is expected today into
  Friday. Potential peak surge amounts are 10 to 15 feet from
  Chassahowitzka to Suwannee River, 8 to 12 feet from Anclote River
  to Chassahowitzka, 5 to 8 feet from Middle of Longboat Key to
  Anclote River, 4 to 7 feet from Englewood to Middle of Longboat
  Key, and 3 to 5 feet from Bonita Beach to Englewood. Elevated
  water levels are possible through Friday.

* Flooding Rain - Flooding rain threat will run from today through
  this weekend with rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with locally
  higher amounts up to 10 inches possible. Even after Helene pulls
  away, additional rounds of heavy rainfall are expected this
  weekend.

* Wind - Hurricane and tropical storm force winds will be possible
  today and tonight with the highest probabilities along the coast.

* Tornadoes - Several tornadoes are possible today and tonight
  across the area.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

As Helene starts pulling away on Friday winds will remain
out of the southwest and stay breezy at least through the morning
hours. The moisture axis will shift mainly to southwest Florida
giving them the best chance of rain throughout the day. That axis
of moisture does lift north for the weekend and early next
weekend. This will result in PWs staying around 2 to 2.5 inches
for much of our CWA resulting in scattered to widespread showers
throughout the the afternoon and evening hours each day. We will
see moisture decreasing starting on Tuesday and Wednesday which
will result in lower rain chances across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Winds continue to increase across the area with heavy rain
expected to move back in this afternoon. This system will bring
MVFR and occasional IFR conditions into tonight. Gusty south-
southeast winds of 25 to 35 knots this afternoon will continue to
turn southerly and eventually southwesterly later tonight. Wind
gusts will also increase to 45 to 60 kts in some of the stronger
rainbands this afternoon/evening. Winds will begin diminishing
and conditions will begin to improve by 02/03Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Dangerous and life threatening boating conditions will
continue for our waterways today as Hurricane Helene continues to
push through the Gulf of Mexico. Currently we have tropical storm
and hurricane warning throughout our zones. Helene will push into
the Big Bend area tonight. After that winds will stay out of the
southwest but we will still see dangerous boating conditions
through the morning hours before winds slowly subside throughout
the afternoon and evening hours. Winds will remain south to
southwest through the weekend and Monday with speed between 5 to
10 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Hurricane Helene will keep winds and wet conditions in place
through Friday. After that southwesterly winds will keep moisture on
the higher side through the weekend and early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  80  89  79 / 100 100  10  20
FMY  86  78  88  79 /  80  80  60  70
GIF  87  78  89  77 /  90  80  20  30
SRQ  88  81  89  79 / 100 100  20  40
BKV  86  78  89  74 / 100 100  10  10
SPG  86  81  88  82 / 100 100  10  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Friday morning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal
     Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-
     Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-
     DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-
     Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-
     Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-
     Sumter.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal
     Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-
     DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-
     Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland
     Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

     Hurricane Watch for Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal
     Sarasota-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Pasco-
     Pinellas.

     Storm Surge Warning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal
     Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-
     Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Hurricane Warning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal
     Levy-Coastal Pasco-Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...Tropical Storm Warning for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island
     Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out
     20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL
     out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Hurricane Watch for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon
     Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Hurricane Warning for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon
     Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...ADavis
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Pearce