Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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526 FXUS65 KTFX 260314 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 914 PM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .UPDATE... An upper level trough continues to move onshore this evening with its associated Pacific cold front currently pushing into far NW MT. A few fast moving thunderstorms continue to track NE across NW MT late this evening ahead of the front with the threat for these and associated stronger wind gusts moving through the Glacier NP vicinity ending by midnight. Risk for more widespread strong wind gusts will increase after midnight along the Rocky Mtn front and adjacent areas following the frontal passage. Gusty post-frontal west winds and more seasonable temperatures will spread east across the rest of north-central and southwest MT Thursday morning with with most areas likely to see peak wind intensity late Thursday morning. Hoenisch && .SYNOPSIS... A Pacific front will move eastward across Montana tonight. A few showers or thunderstorms will affect areas around Glacier Park and Cut Bank this evening, otherwise dry conditions are expected until at least Sunday night. Afternoon temperatures will not be as warm tomorrow, but do return close to 80 degrees for Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION... 26/00Z TAF Period A Pacific cold front crosses the Northern Rockies tonight with a few showers and thunderstorms tracking NE this evening in the Glacier NP vicinity and additional showers confined to areas along the Continental divide north of Lincoln following the frontal passage late tonight through Thursday morning. Otherwise, an increase in mainly mid-high level clouds and VFR conditions are expected at most terminals with primary aviation impacts related to wind. Gusty/erratic winds are possible near showers/thunderstorms near Glacier NP this evening with gusty southwest winds elsewhere diminishing some this evening before re-intensifying and turning westerly with the arrival and passage of the cold front later tonight. Mountain wave turbulence and localized low level wind shear may increase later tonight through Thursday as flow aloft turns more westerly. Hoenisch Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024/ Tonight through Sunday...A Pacific cool front will move eastward across the CWA tonight. Expect windy conditions to develop over the northwestern portions of the CWA this evening, and then continue into Thursday morning. Some probabilities for 60 mph wind gusts have lowered to about 60 percent. Also, a few isolated thunderstorms are possible in the Glacier Park/Browning/Cut Bank areas, with an isolated strong wind gust possible. Thus the high wind warning will continue. Afternoon temperatures will be slightly cooler on Thursday, but then warm back up for Fri/Sat...only to cool a few degrees on Sunday. Sunday night through Wednesday...Expect a changeable weather pattern starting Sunday night and then continuing into the middle portions of next week. At this time, the changes in temperatures will be most noticeable, as any precipitation that does fall is expected to light at this time. Also, if any precipitation does fall Sunday night, it will mostly be over the northern portions of the CWA. Temperatures early next week do begin to vary daily, with upper level trofs moving through. Even though overnight lows will be near freezing at times, day times highs will mostly be in the 60s/70s. Brusda && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 53 72 49 81 / 10 0 0 0 CTB 51 64 46 74 / 10 0 0 0 HLN 54 76 48 82 / 0 10 0 0 BZN 49 78 43 82 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 38 71 33 73 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 48 75 42 79 / 0 10 0 0 HVR 54 71 45 83 / 0 10 0 0 LWT 51 71 45 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning until 3 PM MDT Thursday for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera- Eastern Toole and Liberty-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls