Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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613 FXUS63 KTOP 240544 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1244 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for showers and perhaps some thunderstorms Tuesday. - Rain potential returns late Thursday into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 The upper-level trough and associated light rain has been slow to exit the area today. Light showers continue across portions of far east central Kansas. CLoud cover has also been stubborn across eastern Kansas. All of this activity will finally exit later this evening. We should see some brief clearing tonight before another trough quickly enters the area. A couple vort maxes will swing through northeast Kansas tonight into tomorrow. The first one may bring some sprinkles or light showers to the area (~20% chances) but the better chance of precipitation will come with a passing cold front late tomorrow morning into the afternoon. Steep lapse rates and at least a few hundred joules of CAPE should be enough for some thunderstorms to develop with the passing of the front and dynamic upper-level system. The next focus turns to this weekend as the remnants of a tropical system may pivot northwestward near our area. There is considerable uncertainty as to how far west it will make it and how progressive the overall pattern will be, but at least portions of the Midwest and maybe even the central Plains could see some good rain this weekend. What is more certain is the temperature profile through the week. A very pleasant week is expected with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Maintaining a VFR forecast for now. Mid to high clouds continue move toward the area associated with an upper level system to the northwest of the area. Current timing of the high clouds should limit fog potential to the ESE of the terminals. Could still see some ground fog near sunrise. The weak surface front arrives around midday into the afternoon with a slight veering of the winds taking place. Could see a isolated to scattered SHRA or embedded TS by the afternoon period. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Drake AVIATION...Drake