Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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746 FXUS63 KTOP 242333 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 633 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible late this afternoon and early evening. - Mild temperatures with highs in 70s and lows in the 50s. - Precipitation less likely for this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 211 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 A compact, fast-moving upper-level wave is quickly diving southeast across Iowa and Missouri. Cloud cover has quickly cleared across most of the area early this afternoon. This has allowed temperatures to rise quickly into the 70s. These warmer surface temperatures will combine with rather cool temperatures aloft to create an unstable atmospheric profile with steep lapse rates and several hundred joules of CAPE. A cumulus field is already developing in far southeast Nebraska. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible (20-40%) this afternoon and evening across eastern Kansas. Given the aforementioned parameters, some robust thunderstorms with brief gusty winds and small hail are possible (10-20%) before sunset. Once the sun sets we will quickly stabilize and any ongoing thunderstorms should quickly weaken. After this wave exits the area surface high pressure will build in and a quiet and cool night will be in store with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. The rest of the week looks dry and mild with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. The track of the tropical system that is anticipated to swing into the Midwest later this weekend has shifted further and further east with each model run. Most models have all the moisture associated with this system off to our east now. Some ensemble runs have low chances of precipitation for our far eastern counties this weekend, but these probabilities will likely continue to decrease over the next several runs given the latest trends. Overall, we are in for a very nice stretch of weather! && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 633 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Early evening thunderstorms impacting areas near KTOP and KFOE will persist over the next hour or two, sliding to the south and weakening. Beyond t-storm concerns, skies will clear overnight with light winds shifting towards the north. Cannot rule out some shallow ground fog in the morning, especially at KTOP and KFOE with the additional moisture provided by this evenings storms, but confidence was low to include any VIS restrictions. High pressure holds during the day tomorrow with light north/northeasterly winds and mostly clear skies. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Jones AVIATION...Griesemer