Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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888 FXUS64 KTSA 271511 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1011 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1009 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Current forecast for today is on track with only minor adjustments needed to better reflect current trends. && .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 312 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Mid and upper-level cloud cover will increase later this morning and spread east-to-west today as remnants from tropical cyclone Helene get absorbed by an upper-level cut-off low, currently centered over Memphis, TN. As tropical moisture gets ingested into the upper-low, rain chances will increase for portions of northwest AR late this morning and into this afternoon. But despite the increase in tropical moisture, consensus in deterministic models and ensembles continue to trend precipitation chances and rainfall amounts lower today. Kept the highest PoPs (optimistically around 30-40%) across Carroll, Madison, and Franklin counties in AR, but PoPs may need to be adjusted lower if model/ensemble trends continue to lower. Overall, rainfall amounts should remain light and generally around a tenth of an inch or less where rain does fall. Although hazardous weather is not anticipated today, northerly winds will become breezy across northwest AR and much of eastern OK by mid-late morning. Sustained winds 15-20 mph are likely, with occasional gusts to 35 mph will be possible this afternoon through sunset. Gusts up to 35 mph may be more frequent over the higher terrain in northwest AR. High temperatures will rise into the low-mid 80s across eastern OK and west-central AR. Persistent cloud cover and rain chances will keep much of far northwestern AR temperatures in the mid-upper 70s this afternoon. Mejia && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 312 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Lingering rain chances (15-30%) early this evening will be ending across northwest AR before midnight tonight as an upper-level cut-off low shifts eastward over western KY and mid-level dry air advects over the region. Rain chances look very minimal through the remainder of the forecast period as mid/upper-level ridging dominates over the Southern Plains well into next week. Guidance continues to indicate a weak, dry cold front moving through the forecast area during the daytime Tuesday. The front will lower temperatures and dewpoint temperatures a few degrees, compared to previous days, through Wednesday. Effects of the weak cold front appear to be short-lived as southerly winds return by Wednesday afternoon and temperatures will rebound above seasonal average into the latter half of the workweek next week. Hazardous weather is not expected through the long-term period at this time. Mejia && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 608 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 VFR conditions will continue for the entire forecast period. North winds will gust over 20 knots at times today. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 83 62 83 61 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 82 64 83 64 / 20 20 0 0 MLC 84 61 84 60 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 84 57 85 56 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 78 58 80 58 / 20 20 0 0 BYV 74 60 78 60 / 40 20 0 0 MKO 82 61 83 59 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 80 60 82 58 / 10 0 0 0 F10 83 59 83 57 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 84 62 84 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...05