Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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652 FXUS64 KTSA 230750 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 250 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 The surface cold front has moved through the area with cool northerly flow resulting in declining temperatures, coolest in northeast OK. An area of widespread rain with a few embedded storms stretches from south-east OK into west-central AR. Additional showers and storms are also developing near the OK/KS and AR/MO borders. The upper level trough axis is still upstream, so good upper level divergence continues across the area. Persistent lift will induce additional shower and thunderstorm formation in northeast and east- central OK for several more hours. As the trough axis approaches, precipitation will gradually become confined to northwest and north- central AR during the afternoon, finally moving out of the area by tonight. Additional rainfall totals will vary, but in general the highest totals should be in AR. Afternoon highs are somewhat uncertain today. There is a signal in CAM guidance to keep most of northeast OK really socked in with clouds, only allowing temperatures to climb into the upper 60s to low 70s. Lowered temperatures a bit from the NBM to account for this. Elsewhere, temperatures will be a bit warmer, generally in the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 With clouds and precipitation clearing the area, temperatures will cool significantly into Tuesday morning. Low temperatures will range from the low 50s in the northwest to near 60 in the southeast. Temperatures will rebound during the day Tuesday, but with another upper level low diving into the region, any break in storm activity will be short lived. Rain chances will increase Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning, though totals will mostly be minimal. There has been considerable uncertainty the last several days with regards to the pattern during the late week period and onwards due to large variation in how models handle this upper level low (as well as the possible entrainment of tropical moisture). Although the specifics are still not known, the general picture is becoming a bit more clear. For Wednesday through Thursday the upper level low will hang out somewhere east of the area. Some guidance such as the latest ECMWF keeps the upper level low over AR, while other guidance such as the GFS or CMC are a bit further east. In either case the upper level low is expected to then retrograde westwards towards the area Friday-Saturday bringing increased rain and thunder chances. Ensemble cluster analysis suggests that the most likely outcome (50- 60 % chance) is for the upper level low to remain relatively closer to the forecast area. The EPS mean shows this as a rather anomalous pattern with unusually low surface pressure and mid level heights for this time of year as well as anomalously strong mid level east to northeast flow around the low pressure area. Additionally, moisture levels will be above the 90th percentile. This pattern would increase the probability for areas of moderate to possibly heavy rainfall next Friday-Saturday. Pops and forecast precipitation were increased for this time frame. With the upper level low hanging over or near the area through next weekend, temperatures will remain near to below normal with at least a slight chance of rain each day. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Corridor of showers and storm currently aligns near the slow moving cold front and this trend will continue into the overnight hours with a slow south and eastward progress. Additional showers and a few storms are expected to develop north of the front across portions of NE OK and eventually NW AR with this precip continuing into the day Monday. Additionally, low clouds with low MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to spread south in wake of the front and persist through much of the day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 70 58 78 57 / 70 10 10 40 FSM 80 63 83 61 / 70 10 10 40 MLC 75 58 85 58 / 60 0 10 50 BVO 70 52 78 52 / 70 10 20 20 FYV 76 58 78 55 / 80 20 10 30 BYV 77 59 76 55 / 90 30 10 30 MKO 73 56 79 57 / 80 10 10 40 MIO 70 56 76 53 / 80 20 10 20 F10 71 55 81 55 / 70 0 10 40 HHW 81 60 86 60 / 60 10 10 40 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...07