Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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221 FXUS64 KTSA 221612 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1112 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1112 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Batch of showers with isolated thunderstorm potential is finally beginning to move northeastward into parts of northeast Oklahoma just north of I-44 and west of Highway 75 late this morning. The expectation is that coverage will remain on the low to medium side through the daylight hours, with coverage and intensity picking up during the afternoon given CAM trends. POP adjustments through the morning have been made to adjust the maximum values southward a bit given the current radar and also in the afternoon to lower them a bit - leveraging the short-term blend - given expected lower coverage. Will also keep any thunderstorm mention isolated until mid to late afternoon. Overall severe weather threat this afternoon/evening remains limited, with forecast instability and already available shear supportive of an isolated strong to severe storm or two later today. Updated forecast out, with potential for further adjustments into early afternoon depending on observational trends. 22 && .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 220 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Widespread rain with isolated embedded thunderstorms are noted from north-central OK up into southeast KS this morning. An outflow boundary has pushed to near the I-44 corridor with evidence of gravity waves northwest of it. Additional reinforcing outflow boundaries are also present further to the west. So far there has been limited precipitation within the forecast area, but both observational trends and CAMs suggest the axis of precipitation will drift east the next few hours resulting in increasing rain chances for portions of northeast OK near the KS border. CAM guidance indicates a slow progression of showers and storms during most of the morning hours today, resulting in a rather sharp temperature gradient from northwest to southeast. Small differences in how quickly the precipitation moves will have a large difference in high temperatures. Areas that are well to the south of the main precipitation band are expected to still reach the lower 90s this afternoon. By mid to late afternoon the surface cold front will pick up speed and push through the area bringing much cooler temperatures and a gusty northwesterly wind. Additionally, shower and storm chances will increase for the entire forecast area during this period. With lower atmospheric moisture levels near the 97-99% percentile for this time of year, a few of the storms could produce locally heavy rainfall. A few factors will mitigate the severe weather threat with more of a messy storm mode expected, but there will be sufficient shear and instability to promote a few strong to severe storms, mainly due to wind. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 220 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Overnight tonight the mid level trough axis will approach the area. This, with colder mid to upper level air, will promote additional rain and thunderstorm activity. Storm total precipitation will mostly be below one inch, but localized totals could be higher under any heavy thunderstorms. Precipitation will mostly become confined to Arkansas by Monday afternoon and out of the area completely by the late evening. Model guidance shows considerable spread on Monday with some guidance holding onto clouds and showers longer, with highs perhaps as low as the upper 60s. Other guidance that is quicker to move the rain out allows for temperatures in the upper 70s. Opted to split the difference for now with highs mainly in the low to mid 70s. Low temperatures will fall into the low 50s in the north Tuesday morning, with upper 50s in the south. A trailing shortwave trough will dig into the rear of the previously mentioned storm system as it tries to move east during the midweek period. Model guidance continues to show considerable uncertainty, but confidence is increasing on a renewed chance of a few showers Tuesday night into Wednesday, especially for eastern OK. The upper level low will probably settle just east of the area, keeping temperatures below seasonal norms through at least late week. Things become more interesting for the end of the week into the weekend as a potential tropical system approaches the Gulf coast. A small subset of ensemble guidance ingests some of the tropical moisture into the closed low and wraps precipitation back into the area. A larger subset keeps the tropical system too far east to affect the area much, with varying degrees of ridging trying to impinging on the area from the west. Overall, most of these solutions would still keep temperatures near or below normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 628 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Showers and storms ongoing across north central OK will gradually spread northeastward with initial flight impacts at KBVO. Additional precip will develop and expand across E OK from late morning through afternoon in advance of the cold front with arrival into western AR by late afternoon through the evening. The slow movement of the front required a longer duration of precip mention with steady downward trend in ceilings especially in the post frontal airmass. Prevailing ceilings at low MVFR to IFR conditions are expected to develop Sunday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 85 61 74 57 / 50 70 40 0 FSM 93 70 77 62 / 10 40 70 10 MLC 94 63 76 56 / 20 50 70 0 BVO 82 56 73 51 / 50 60 30 0 FYV 88 64 74 55 / 20 60 80 20 BYV 88 65 73 58 / 20 60 80 30 MKO 89 62 72 56 / 40 60 60 10 MIO 82 60 71 55 / 30 70 60 10 F10 90 61 74 54 / 40 60 60 0 HHW 92 69 80 60 / 0 20 60 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...07