095
FXUS64 KTSA 261536
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1036 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1035 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Additional isolated to scattered storms are possible across
portions of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas late
this afternoon into the early evening as a cold front currently
working into central Oklahoma moves across the area.
with an unstable airmass already in place across the region, any
storm that develops will have the potential to become severe with
large hail the main concern. Tornadoes will also possible with
storms that may interact with any leftover boundaries from previous
convection. This will be especially true across western Arkansas,
where a couple of boundaries are present.

Have only made a few adjustments to the forecast for today to better
reflect the latest trends in observations and short-term model guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Cooler and drier weather will filter in behind the front tonight
with lows dropping into the low 60s and upper 50s. A quiet day
looks to be in store for Memorial Day on Monday as subtle mid
level and surface ridging builds into the region. The mid level
ridge then begins to build more into the western CONUS over the
coming week, with a shift in the pattern to northwest flow aloft
over much of the Southern Plains. Daily thunderstorm complexes are
likely to develop across the High Plains and track across the
forecast area nightly Tuesday night through Thursday night.
Locally heavy rainfall will be the primary concern, with some
limited severe potential also likely to accompany any MCS that
moves through the region.

THe unsettles pattern continues into next weekend as we remain on
the periphery of the ridge and increased westerly flow aloft
continues over the area. Daily thunderstorm chances will continue
during this time as well with the warm and moist airmass remaining
in place through the period.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Outflow boundary from decaying storms will likely push into far northeast
Oklahoma this morning before stalling. A brief period of MVFR ceilings
will be possible near boundary, mainly at KBVO, including a few showers.
Gusty southwest winds will develop by mid to late morning ahead of approaching
front/dry line. A few storms will be possible across northwest Arkansas
by mid to late afternoon but overall coverage will be limited. Otherwise,
VFR conditions expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   90  62  87  62 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   93  67  90  63 /  20  20   0   0
MLC   93  64  89  63 /   0  10   0  10
BVO   88  58  86  58 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   90  60  85  59 /  20  20   0   0
BYV   89  62  84  59 /  20  20   0   0
MKO   91  62  85  62 /   0  10   0   0
MIO   87  59  83  59 /  20  10   0   0
F10   92  61  86  62 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   91  65  90  64 /   0  20   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...12