Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
104 FXUS65 KTWC 232227 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 327 PM MST Thu May 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Seasonably warm and dry conditions will continue for the next few days with breezy conditions on tap each afternoon. Saturday will see the strongest winds as a weak disturbance moves through this weekend. Highs will climb and potentially exceed 100 early next week as weak high pressure ridge builds over the region. && .DISCUSSION... Latest water vapor imagery continues to depict broad zonal flow across the western states, driven between a series of disturbances over the rockies and high pressure aloft centered over northern Mexico. Pattern will sustain breezy afternoons and near to slightly above normal high temperatures for this time of year over the next few days. Temperatures will approach and potentially exceed 100 early next week, in response to a weak ridge of high pressure aloft building. Strongest winds will be on Saturday, in response to a weak upper level trough passage over the region. Ensemble guidance continues to favor building an upper level ridge across the Rocky Mountain chain and four corners by the middle of next week. Outcome will sustain reduced afternoon winds and favor lowland high temperatures from the mid to upper 90s across Cochise, Graham, Greenlee and Santa Cruz counties, to lower 100`s across Pima and southwestern Pinal county. && .AVIATION...Valid through 25/00Z. SKC through 24/03Z. Then SCT-BKN 250 between 24/03Z and 24/12Z for all areas. SKC returns after 24/14Z. SFC winds W-SW 12-18 kts with gusts to 25 kts through 24/02Z then light and variable overnight. SFC winds SW 15-22kts with gusts to 30kts after 24/19Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions with breezy afternoons at times will continue Friday and especially Saturday. Minimum RH values to the single digits in valleys with poor to fair overnight recoveries remain forecast. Temperatures In an environment supportive very low fuel moistures Saturday for the foreseeable future, the combination 20-foot sustained wind speeds to 20 mph or more Saturday should favor the development of Critical Fire Weather Conditions across the lowlands in Cochise, southern Graham, Greenlee and northeast Pinal counties. Seasonably warm temperatures will continue through the weekend, with hotter afternoons on tap early next week. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for AZZ152. && $$ Public...Tripoli Aviation...Tripoli Fire Weather....Tripoli Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson