Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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773 FXUS63 KUNR 231036 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 436 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Aside from a few sprinkles today, dry weather with temps slowly warming back up this week. -Elevated fire conditions at times this week && .DISCUSSION...(Today Through Sunday) Issued at 1257 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Water vapor shows short wave trof diving through the Northern Rockies, with high over the eastern Pacific and ridge building into the Pac NW. At the surface, trof is shifting eastward across eastern MT/WY. Short wave trof will shift through the Northern PLains today, with associated surface trof/front creating some breezy northwest winds. Could be some virga/sprinkles with the trof, but otherwise will be a warm day with highs ranging from around 70 in northeast WY to the lower 80s in south central SD. Upper ridge will gradually expand eastward through the western CONUS early this week and into the Plains mid to late week. Dry conditions with highs warming back up into the 80s by mid week with a few 90s possible. Warmest day likely to be Thursday with thermal ridge overhead. Northern stream jet gradually shifts back into the northern tier late week into the weekend with upper ridge flattening. This would bring a slight cool down, although still above average temps. Any chance for precip looks to hold til early next week as there is at least some model consistency with an upper trof moving through the Northern Rockies during that time. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Tuesday Morning) Issued At 434 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 A cold front will cross the area today, which will bring breezy (15G25kt) northwest winds late this morning through this afternoon. A few showers may also develop along the front, but VFR conditions will continue. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued At 1257 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Breezy northwest winds expected today with the passage of a surface trof, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions. Could be a few sprinkles with the trof, but chances for wetting rains will remain near zero. Temperatures will warm back up through the week as an upper ridge builds back, resulting in continued elevated fire weather conditions at times. After today, no precipitation chances are expected through the week. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Johnson AVIATION...Pojorlie FIRE WEATHER...Johnson