Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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242 FXUS63 KUNR 232355 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 555 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Aside from a few sprinkles today, dry weather with temps slowly warming back up this week, warmest Thursday -Elevated fire conditions at times this week, especially Wednesday and Thursday && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Monday) Issued at 1249 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Fairly quiet pattern this week as the western NOAM ridge rebuilds and supports warmer temps with mainly dry weather. Upper trough currently advecting across the region today, supporting clouds and a few sprinkles/showers. This system continues to fight a lot of dry air, but will have a enough lift to support isolated afternoon/evening showers/sprinkles across mainly the central SD plains. Any precip amounts will be very light. Cool front will shift through the region supporting a period of breezy NW winds this afternoon, esp on the NW SD Plains. After today, mean ridging can be expected through the rest of the week with temps trending above normal. Temps will be back in the 80s (few 90s) most places by the middle of the week, under dry conds. The pattern then becomes muddled by early next week as a potent upper trough moves into the Northern Plains, with a plethora of different solutions as to how this system evolves. This will likely hinge on the location of the expected closed low over the Midwest and its effects on flow blocking. Some forecast models suggest it will be cold enough for some light snow across the higher elevations of northeast WY and western SD early next week. Much to work out until then. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Tuesday Evening) Issued At 553 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Breezy northwest winds will diminish through this evening. Some light showers are occurring along the front over the western SD plains and will move out of the area this evening as well. Otherwise expect VFR conditions through the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued At 1249 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Temperatures will warm back up through the week as an upper ridge builds back, resulting in continued elevated fire weather conditions at times. Near critical conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday as RH falls below 20 percent with gusty winds. After today, no precipitation chances are expected through the week. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC AVIATION...Dye FIRE WEATHER...JC