Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
520 FXUS65 KVEF 202046 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 146 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system moving through southern California will continue to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through tonight. Heavy rainfall is possible with the stronger storms along with gusty winds. Drier conditions will resume Saturday onward with a warming trend commencing. && .DISCUSSION...Through next Friday. Impacts in the way of locally heavy rain(flooding), gusty winds and hail from thunderstorms associated with the slow moving upper low will stay with us through tonight. Upper low presently east of Los Angles will continue to slowly trudge east through southern California into early this evening. The low will then start to accelerate east across western Arizona late tonight/Saturday. Several stronger cells that passed over rain gauges have produced between 0.50"/hr to 1"/hr. On such storm did close Highway 127 north of Baker. Storm coverage has already started to diminish across the western Mojave Desert, but new showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and expand in coverage over southern Nevada and northwest Arizona the rest of this afternoon through tonight. As for gusty winds, HRRR has been somewhat consistent run-to-run suggesting a period of gusty north-northeast winds (35-45 mph) impacting the Las Vegas Valley, northern Clark and southern Nye Counties in a window between 5 pm and 9 pm this evening. There may be a few showers lingering in eastern Clark and southeast Lincoln County tomorrow morning through 8 am PDT, otherwise any shower coverage will be confined to northwest Arizona tomorrow. Intermountain West will be under a dry northwest flow early in the week with GEFS/EPS both showing a weak open trough dropping southeast across Utah/Colorado. This will usher in some locally gusty north winds Tuesday, as well as produce a slight dip in our temperatures. The rest of the week looks dry with high pressure over the Great Basin and Desert Southwest. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Showers and thunderstorms will be in the forecast through tonight as an area of low pressure moves east across southern CA/NV. Expect mainly vicinity showers through 00z with a general southeast to northwest movement. Winds are expected to be easterly with speeds around 8 kts, but southeast winds around 8 knots can`t be ruled out as showers and storms develop. It is also possible that we could see more a more variable wind direction at times due to showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity. Storm chances will continue after 03z, but are expected to move from a northeast to southwest direction. Gusty and variable outflow winds are also possible through the evening with gusts up to 25 knots are times. Sky conditions will range from scattered to broken today with bases AOA 8kft AGL, followed by improving skies overnight with bases lifting to around 12kft AGL by daybreak Saturday. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Low pressure moving across southern California today and northwest Arizona overnight will bring the threat of showers and thunderstorms to the region. KDAG will see the threat of showers and storms through this afternoon before diminishing this evening. The Colorado River TAF sites will see chances increase late this afternoon and early evening and have included VCTS in both EED and IFP TAFs. Conditions will improve by Saturday morning, with all but the far eastern sections of the region seeing precipitation chances end. Aside from gusty winds near thunderstorms, winds will be from the east to southeast in most areas, with sustained speeds of 12 knots or less. Winds at KBIH will be primarily from the north through the TAF period. Sky conditions will range from scattered to broken today with bases AOA 8kft to 10kft AGL, followed by improving skies west to east overnight with bases lifting to around 12kft AGL by daybreak Saturday. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Pierce AVIATION...Gorelow For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter