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494
FXUS61 KALY 301055
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
655 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low will continue to bring rain with isolated embedded
thunderstorms to the Mid-Hudson Valley, southern Taconics,
Litchfield Hills, and southern Berkshires into this morning.
Widespread cloud cover elsewhere will trend downward as high
pressure builds in from the west, bringing dry weather and
warming temperatures into the first weekend of June.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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.UPDATE...As of 0655 AM EDT, the surface low continues to track
to the east-northeast over southern New England, with a shield
of steady rain over the Mid-Hudson Valley east into western New
England. Rain will end from west to east through this morning as
the system exits eastward. Thunder has largely ceased overnight,
and have therefore removed any additional mention of isolated
thunderstorms this morning. Forecast otherwise remains on track;
see previous discussion below...

.PREV DISCUSSION [0345 AM EDT]...A surface low near the New
York City area will continue to track to the east-northeast
through today, with an area of light to moderate rain extending
northward into the eastern Catskills, Mid-Hudson Valley, central
and southern Taconics, Litchfield Hills, and southern
Berkshires. Earlier embedded thunderstorms have largely
dissipated, but there may yet be a few isolated rumbles of
thunder through early this morning, especially in far
southeastern areas from Poughkeepsie east to Torrington. Latest
kenx radar returns show precipitation echoes extending northward
along the Hudson Valley and Berkshires, but the lowest levels
of the atmosphere remain fairly dry thanks to northerly to
northwesterly flow, with dewpoint depressions remaining above 10
degrees per NYS Mesonet and regional ASOS observations. Some
light rain may eventually reach the surface as the column
moistens, but precipitation amounts will remain light across the
Capital District and into southern Vermont, with storm-total
QPF of about one to three quarter inches farther south. Steady
rain with embedded convection may result in a few instances of
minor nuisance flooding of low-lying or urban areas in this
region.

As the potent shortwave and associated surface low exit to the
east through the day today, rain showers will end in southeastern
areas by mid-morning, with skies expected to trend clearer as
heights aloft begin to rise by tonight. A few rain showers may
develop over the Berkshires and eastern Catskills following peak
diurnal heating with cooler air aloft. Following morning lows
in the 40s to low 50s for most and upper 30s in the southern
Adirondacks, temperatures will remain slightly below normal
beneath the cold pool within upper troughing and a cool
northerly to northwesterly breeze. Afternoon highs are expected
in the upper 50s to mid 60s in high terrain, and upper 60s to
low 70s at lower elevations. With diminishing winds and clearing
skies overnight tonight, efficient radiative cooling will allow
temperatures to fall to low in the upper 30s to mid 40s across
the region.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Narrow but high amplitude upper ridging and associated surface
high pressure will build in from the west Friday into the
weekend, bringing continued dry weather and mostly sunny skies.
Temperatures trend upward through the period as northwesterly
flow on Friday begins to turn out of the southwest on Saturday.
Afternoon highs will be near normal on Friday, with 60s in high
terrain and low to mid 70s at lower elevations, and will reach
above normal on Saturday, with widespread 70s, a few upper 60s
in areas of highest terrain, and a few low 80s along the Hudson
River. Overnight lows similarly trend warmer with 40s expected
across the region Friday night and upper 40s to mid 50s on
Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The upper level ridge looks to break down heading into the second
half of the weekend as an upper-level shortwave passes nearby or
just to our south. This shortwave looks a bit stronger compared to
recent runs and may contain enough moisture for an isolated shower
or thunderstorm, especially for areas west of the Hudson River.
Otherwise, it should remain a fairly seasonable day with comfortable
humidity levels. Highs should reach the 70s in most areas with some
valley locations around 80.

The upper-level pattern becomes a bit uncertain for early to mid
next week, but upper level ridging attempts to return across the
region with surface high pressure nearby or just off the East Coast.
Warmer and more humid conditions build across the region with the
potential for some pop up showers and thunderstorms on some days.
Coverage and best timing of these showers remains a bit uncertain
but no day looks to be a washout. Highs Monday through Wednesday
look to range from the mid-70s to mid-80s with lows in the mid-50s
to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Through 12z/Fri...Rain will end at KPOU/KPSF by 13z/Thu with drier
weather for the rest of the TAF cycle. MVFR cigs/vsbys at KPOU/KPSF
will lift to VFR after rain ends. VFR conditions will continue at
KALB/KGFL. Cloudy/mostly cloudy conditions early this morning will
trend mostly clear this afternoon through tonight. With the drier
air mass advecting into the region, no fog is expected tonight.

Wind will become north to northwesterly at all sites through the
afternoon at speeds around 10 kt with a few higher gusts. Wind will
trend light to calm tonight.

Outlook...

Thursday Night to Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today, a dry airmass and deep mixing will result in surface
dewpoints falling to the mid 30s to mid 40s across the region,
while temperatures in the 60s to low 70s will lead to minimum RH
values around 30 to 40 percent. Northerly winds of 5 to 10 knots
will gust to around 15 knots. Widespread rainfall of at least a
half inch earlier this week, with many observations of one to
three inches in areas of higher terrain, will be supplemented by
an additional soaking rainfall south and east of Albany early
this morning, acting to limit the risk of fire spread.
Therefore, Special Weather Statements for enhanced fire spread
are not being considered.

Friday may again feature marginal conditions for fire spread,
with minimum RH values of 30 to 40 percent and northwesterly
wind gusts of 15 t0 20 knots, however the recent rainfall will
again limit fire weather concerns.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard
NEAR TERM...Picard
SHORT TERM...Picard
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Rathbun
FIRE WEATHER...Main/Picard