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317
FXUS61 KALY 290800
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
400 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A few lingering showers across the southern Adirondacks and
Upper Hudson will diminish by Wednesday morning. A disturbance
passing to the south with bring rain showers south of I-90, and
most likely along the I-84 corridor. Cooler temperatures behind
the cold frontal passage persist through Thursday night, before
a warming trend kicks off Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As an initial upper shortwave is exiting eastward into New
England while a second impulse digs over the Upper Ohio Valley
and Mid-Atlantic through tonight. As this second shortwave
passes to the south, a region of rain showers will spread from
west to east, primarily to the south of I-90 and most likely
along the I-84 corridor. Sufficient instability (MLCAPE around
500 J/kg) will allow for embedded thunderstorms, particularly in
the afternoon. While storms may result in a brief heavy
downpour, no severe weather is expected. North of I-90 and
farther from the synoptic forcing for ascent, showers will be
much more isolated or altogether absent, while skies trend
clearer through the evening and overnight.

Enhanced cloud cover early this morning will allow for a mild
start to the day, but cooler air aloft within upper troughing
with keep temperatures near to slightly below normal, reaching
afternoon highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s in high terrain and
upper 60s to mid 70s at lower elevations. A surface wind shift
boundary will sink across the region overnight tonight, with
developing cold advection in northerly flow allowing for cooler
temperatures as lows fall to the upper 30s to low 40s in high
terrain and mid 40s to low 50s at lower elevations.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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The upper trough axis passes overhead on Thursday while cold
advection on low-level northerly flow keeps temperatures
slightly below normal, rising to afternoon highs in the upper
50s to mid 60s in high terrain and upper 60s to low 70s at lower
elevations. Rain showers associated with surface troughing
finally exit south and east from the Mid-Hudson Valley and
northwestern Connecticut by mid-morning, as dry weather returns
across the region. Surface high pressure to the west and weak
surface troughing offshore to the southeast will result in
potentially gusty winds as high as 20 mph along north-south
oriented valleys and in areas of high terrain.

The cooler airmass will additionally feature much drier air,
with dewpoints falling into the mid 30s to mid 40s by Thursday
evening. This combination of dry air and gusty winds may promote
a brief period of marginal risk for fire spread; see additional
details in the Fire Weather discussion below. Cloud coverage
will increase with diurnal heating in the afternoon, before
rapidly rising heights aloft result in a robust clearing trend
through Thursday evening and night. As narrow but high amplitude
upper ridging and associated surface high pressure approach
from the west, light winds and largely clear skies will result
in ideal conditions for radiational cooling, resulting in cool
overnight lows in the upper 30s to upper 40s across the region.

Building ridging and surface high pressure will yield continued
dry weather through Friday and Friday night. Temperatures will
trend upward beneath mostly sunny skies, reaching afternoon
highs in the 60s to mid 70s, and falling to overnight lows
in the 40s to near 50 across the region.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Upper level ridging over the weekend will be replaced by general
flat/zonal upper level flow by early next week. Overall, much of the
long term will feature mostly dry and summerlike weather. There
remains some uncertainty on when upper-level shortwave perturbations
will pass through the flow bringing chances for some showers.
Currently, next Tuesday may be the more favored day during this
period. Humidity levels will slowly increase through the period as
well.

Temperatures will trend upward through the period with highs
starting out in the 70s to around 80 on Saturday rising to the upper
70s to upper 80s by Tuesday. Lows will also trend upward starting
out in the upper 40s to lower 50s Saturday night to the mid-50s to
lower 60s by Monday night.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Through 06z/Thu...An upper level trough will be in place through the
upcoming TAF period. An upper level shortwave will pass by to our
south Wednesday evening. VFR conditions are in place at most TAF
sites and should remain VFR for much of the TAF period. The
exception will be for some MVFR stratus at times at KPSF into
Wednesday morning. A weakening area of showers could move over KGFL
over the next few hours but no cig/vsbys reductions are anticipated.
Still, will address with a VCSH. No fog is expected at any sites.

There is some uncertainty on the northward extent of rainfall later
Wednesday afternoon and evening. At this time, the best rain chances
are at KPOU with decreasing chances farther north. Will only
maintain VCSH at KPOU for Wednesday afternoon and monitor trends on
the northern extent of this rainfall in later TAF issuances.

Wind will be west to northwesterly for much of the TAF period at 4-
10 kt (except more northerly at KGFL on Wednesday).

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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A dry airmass and deep mixing will result in surface dewpoints
falling to the mid 30s to mid 40s across the region, while
temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s will lead to minimum RH
values around 35 to 40%. North to northwest winds of 10 to 15
mph with gusts as high as 20 mph in the afternoon may further
support an enhanced risk for fire spread. However, winds and
humidity aside, widespread recent rainfall of 0.5 to 1 inch and
locally higher amounts of 2 to 3 inches in higher terrain, in
addition to increasingly green fuels, may act to inhibit said
risk. Therefore, with marginally supportive weather conditions
for fire spread and considering antecedent rainfall, no
statements for fire weather are currently anticipated.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard
NEAR TERM...Picard
SHORT TERM...Picard
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Rathbun
FIRE WEATHER...Picard