-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
402
FXUS61 KALY 270550
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
150 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing clouds are expected overnight with some
isolated to scattered showers moving in eastern New York and western
New England. The Memorial Day holiday will be met with a widespread
soaking rain and breezy winds due to a strong low pressure system
tracking near the region. Shower chances will continue through much
of the week with an upper level low remaining over the region.
Conditions then look to dry out in time for the end of the week and
into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 108 AM EDT...IR satellite imagery and surface
observations continue to show mostly cloudy to overcast skies
over the region, mainly mid and high level clouds. There are
some areas of low stratus moving into the region from the NYC
and Long Island areas, so an increase in low clouds can be
expected through the overnight from south to north as well.
Based on satellite imagery, little if any breaks in the clouds
will occur through the rest of the night.

Thanks to a storm system moving into the Great Lakes, MRMS
imagery shows a band of showers currently extending from
western NY southeastward across central PA and into the mid
Atlantic States. This band of showers will be lifting northward,
but should be weakening through the late night hours. A few
showers may start to approach western and southern areas by
around 4 or 5 AM, although these showers should be fairly light.
With limited instability expected, won`t mention any thunder
through the late night hours. More widespread showers and
possible t-storms are expected during the day on Monday.

Overnight lows will generally be in the mid to upper 60s due to
the widespread clouds and a gusty southerly winds. It will be a
little muggy with dewpoints into the 60s as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Additional batches of moderate to heavy rain come in the
afternoon as large scale ascent increases with the continually
deepening low. With southerly flow in place at the surface,
upslope enhancement will lead to heavier downpours in the
Eastern Catskills and Southwest Adirondacks. Heavier, embedded
convective downpours are also possible elsewhere due to modest
instability present within the environment. Some rumbles of
thunder cannot be ruled out, but widespread thunderstorms are
not expected. Winds will increase throughout the day with the
increasing pressure gradient across the area. Gusts ranging from
15-25 kt are likely with locally stronger gusts possible with
any embedded thunderstorms that develop.

Moderate to locally heavy rain is expected to persist from mid
to late morning Monday through Monday afternoon before
gradually slowing and tapering to scattered showers by Monday
evening into Monday night. QPF through Monday night is likely to
range from 0.5" to 1.5" with locally higher amounts closer to
2" in the Eastern Catskills and Southwest Adirondacks. Ponding
of water, urban/poor drainage flooding is possible throughout
much of the area with isolated flash flooding being possible in
the Eastern Catskills. High temperatures tomorrow will be cooler
than the last few days with mid/upper 60s to low 70s expected.
Lows tomorrow night will be in the mid/upper 50s to low 60s.

Upper troughing remains over the region Monday night into
Tuesday with the upper low and associated surface low remaining
overhead. Additional showers will be possible through Tuesday
night with the system`s cold front tracking through the region
Tuesday and upper energy pulsing through the mean flow into
Tuesday night. However, showers will be more scattered and
lighter in nature and will likely be more concentrated north of
Albany and west of the Hudson River. Some thunderstorms will be
possible Tuesday afternoon with some modest instability present
across the region. Highs Tuesday will be warmer than Monday with
clouds beginning to decrease as showers decrease in coverage,
yielding mid/upper 60s to upper 70s. Lows Tuesday night will
then fall to the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
We remain under cyclonic flow for a good portion of next week
with the trough associated with the upper-low remaining
situated across eastern New York and western New England. As
such, Wednesday will be a cloudy day with chances for showers
across much of the region. There are some discrepancies in the
guidance as to the exact spatial coverage and duration of
showers due to timing differences in the exit of the upper-low
and the track of an embedded shortwave that will rotate about
its southern periphery, but general consistency points to the
greatest coverage Wednesday morning into the afternoon. Some
weak instability looks to be present mainly south of Albany so
some thunderstorms will also be possible especially Wednesday
afternoon.

Showers look to continue Wednesday night into Thursday morning
before tapering off Thursday afternoon as dry air is ushered in
on the back side of the upper-trough. Dry conditions will then
be in place Thursday night through the remainder of the period
as surface high pressure and an upper-level ridge build in from
the west.

High temperatures Wednesday will range from the upper 50s in the
Southwest Adirondacks to low/mid 70s in the Hudson Valley. We
cool down a bit Thursday with highs anticipated to be in the
upper 50s to near 70. For the end of the week and into the
weekend, we will see a bit of a warming trend with highs Friday
reaching a few degrees warmer than Thursday and rising to the
upper 60s/low 70s to mid/upper 70s by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Through 06Z Tuesday...VFR conditions are expected to trend to MVFR
through the remainder of the overnight period at all terminals as
low stratus at 1-2 kft, already observed at POU, will spread to
ALB/PSF/GFL by 08-10Z Mon as a surface warm front lifts across the
region. Scattered rain showers arriving by 08-10Z Mon will increase
in coverage resulting in MVFR vsbys within a more organized band of
showers spreading to the north and east in the early morning, from
11-13Z through 14-16Z Mon. IFR cigs are most likely at POU during
this period, but are also possible at other regional terminals
through much of the morning.

Behind the warm frontal passage, conditions may improve, with VFR
vsbys expected and cigs lifting back to MVFR across the region. A
robust cold front will then approach from the west in the early
afternoon, with a period of steady rain expected from 20-21Z Mon to
02-03Z Tue. Within the larger area of rain, a narrower band of
thunderstorms is expected to cross from west to east, reaching
ALB/GFL/POU and the Hudson Valley between 21-24Z Mon and PSF between
22Z Mon-01Z Tue. IFR cigs/vsbys within thunderstorms are expected in
this period, though the worst flying conditions will likely be a
more brief window than is currently identified in PROB30 groups.
Behind the cold front, lingering showers may see continued MVFR
conditions through the reminder of the period, although conditions
may trend toward VFR closer to 06Z Tue.

Continued south to southeast winds are expected through the period.
Speeds of 10 kt or less at all terminals will steadily increase to
10-20 kt by 12Z Mon, with gusts of 10-20 kt beginning after 08Z Mon
and increasing to 20-30 kt after 12Z Mon. Brief strong gusty winds
over 30 kt are possible within thunderstorms during the cold frontal
passage around 21-24Z Mon, before speeds decrease to 5-15 kt after
02-03Z Tue.

Outlook...

Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...Picard