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083
FXUS61 KALY 310026
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
826 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Chilly temperatures expected tonight as high pressure builds in
from the Great Lakes tonight leading to clearing skies and light.
The surface anticyclone will bring fair and dry weather tomorrow
through the weekend. Temperatures will moderate above normal on
the weekend into early next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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As of 8:15pm, SCT to BKN stratus clouds continue over the hill
towns and higher terrain this evening as high pressure centered
in Michigan builds south and eastward towards Ohio and western
PA. Northerly winds on the east side of the high will continue
overnight for much of the Northeast maintaining a dry and
chilly Canadian air mass. In fact, as stratus clouds clear
shortly before Midnight and winds turn light (under 5kts),
radiational cooling will ensue allowing temperatures to become
quite chilly. No major changes to the forecasted low
temperatures with just some minor adjustments in the southern
Adirondacks, eastern Catskills, and southern Greens to show
more of the region reaching mid to upper 30s as dew points this
evening dropped into the mid to upper 30s. While some of our
neighboring WFOs issued a frost advisory, we held off and agree
with the reasoning left from our day shift. Civil Twilight
tomorrow morning will be around 4:45am so the duration for
temperatures in the mid to upper 30s is not long enough to
support widespread frost. We are also on the west side of the
high rather than directly beneath it where the coolest
temperatures are found. Continue to message just patchy frost
mainly for the higher terrain areas.

Previous discussion...The mid and upper level trough axis will
move east of the region late this afternoon into early tonight.
High pressure will be ridging in from the Great Lakes Region.
The diurnal cumulus associated with the cold pool with the upper
trough will diminish early this evening.

The north/northwest winds will gradually decrease shortly before
or just after midnight. Some radiational cooling will occur and
we went below the NBM guidance over the higher terrain and in
some of the sheltered valleys. Temps will be in the upper 30s
with some spotty mid 30s over the eastern Catskills, Berkshires,
southern Greens corridor and the south/southwest Adirondack
Park. We did add patchy frost, but deposition will be tricky
with a dry environment, winds early on and the shorter
nocturnal time frame. Sunrise is about 520 am EDT at ALB. No
frost advisory headlines, but a cool or chilly night. Lows will
be in the upper 30s to mid 40s outside the higher terrain. We
did add some patchy fog to the CT River Valley near eastern
Windham County VT.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Tomorrow should be a beautiful day with the sfc anticyclone
building in from the Great Lakes Region/Ohio Valley. The mid and
upper level ridge will be upstream over the Great Lakes Region
and Midwest. It will be partly to mostly sunny with a northwest
breeze generally 5-15 mph. Temps will be slightly below normal
to near normal for the last day of May. Max temps are near the
NBM values with low to mid 70s in the major valleys and 60s to
around 70F over the hills and mtns.

Fri night expect ideal radiational cooling once again with
elongated high pressure over southeast Quebec and NY/PA. Low and
mid level heights will increase toward daybreak. We went close
to a MAV/MET guidance blend with 40s to lower 50s over the
forecast area.

The weekend and the 1st of June begins with great late spring
weather with strong subsidence with the ridge aloft over NY and
New England. H500 heights will be above normal by 1 to 2
STDEVs. Max temps will rise slightly above normal with a light
northwest breeze and few-sct cirrus with mostly sunny skies.
Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s below 1000 feet in
elevation and upper 60s to mid 70s generally above it.

A short-wave trough approaches from the west Sat night and de-
amplifies with the ridge holding on over New England. Some
mid/high clouds may increase and it will be slightly warmer than
previous night but very comfortable with lows in the mid 40s to
mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
On Sunday, a short wave trough approaching from the west is expected
to weaken as it encounters an upper level ridge axis over New
England. There may be enough forcing/moisture to produce isolated to
widely scattered showers, especially for areas west of the Hudson
Valley. It does not look like a washout thought, with dry conditions
likely occurring most of the day. Highs temperatures look to be near
normal, with clouds increasing. A few showers may linger into Sun
evening, but look to be isolated in coverage.

Upper level and surface ridging looks to take control again on
Monday, with dry conditions returning. Temperatures are expected to
warm to above normal levels. Ridging should hold through the middle
of next week, although with a modest increase in moisture and
instability some diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are
possible Tue and Wed. Highs may reach well into the 80s in lower
elevations both days.

The next chance of more widespread convection looks to be on
Thursday, as a potential surface front approaches ahead of an upper
level low moving into the Great Lakes. There is still quite a bit of
spread in the guidance though, so forecast confidence is low.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18z Friday...Earlier showers have come to an end, with VFR
conditions at all TAF sites. VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through at least the end of the TAF period. Will have FEW to SCT mid-
level clouds between 5000-7000 ft through this evening, but these
clouds diminish after sunset. From that point forwards, just a few
passing high clouds are expected through 18z Friday.

Winds will be from the north at around 10 kt through this evening,
becoming light and variable within a few hours of sunset. Winds
remain light and variable through early tomorrow morning before
increasing to 5-10 kt from the west/northwest between 13-15z
tomorrow.

Outlook...

Fri Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tomorrow, minimum RH values drop to 30-40% in the afternoon.
However, fire weather concerns remain low with maximum wind
gusts of around 15 mph expected tomorrow and all areas having
received substantial rainfall within the past 5 days.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speciale/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Speciale/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Speciale
FIRE WEATHER...Main/Picard