-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
709
FXUS61 KBGM 310644
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
244 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Chilly temperatures tonight into the middle 30s to low 40s. Dry
conditions and a steady warming trend will commence Friday and
Saturday. Except for a few showers in western areas Sunday,
quiet and warm weather will continue into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 PM Update...

Clear skies have settled in for most of the region with a
scattered deck remaining over Otsego and Delaware county.
Otherwise light winds are beginning to settle in with
temperatures beginning to gradually fall. Minor changes were
made to update temperatures using current observations,
otherwise previous forecast remains on track at this time.

630 PM Update...

Expanded the frost advisory this update to also include
Delaware, Otsego, Cortland and Chenango counties as model
guidance hints at light winds tonight with clear skies.
Radiational cooling will allow temperatures to fall into the mid
30s overnight with cooler temperatures focused over our
valleys.

230 PM Update...

Gusty north-northwesterly winds across the forecast area will
taper off this evening. Calm winds and clear skies with no
precipitation expected through Thursday night. North-
northwesterly gusts pick up again Friday mid-morning.

Overnight, temperatures are expected to drop into the upper-30s
to mid-40s across the forecast area, with some places down into
the mid-30s with radiational cooling. Patchy frost across
portions of the western Twin Tiers is favorable, with a Frost
Advisory issued for Steuben and Chemung counties in NY in effect
from Midnight tonight through 8 AM Friday. Temperatures
increase into the mid-60s to low-70s for Friday, and will
decrease into the low- to mid-40s, with possibly some areas in
the upper-30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
200 PM update...

High pressure will be in control on Saturday with a surface cold
front and supporting upper wave moving in on Sunday. With warm core
ridging squarely overhead, Saturday looks to be a pristine day with
full sunshine and above normal temperatures. Dry air and clear skies
begin Saturday night with radiational cooling expected to be strong.
Thus, leaning on adjusting the NBM guidance closer toward its tenth
percentile for the overnight minimum temperature. Increasing sky
cover late may temper the cooling as compared to the previous few
nights, thus expecting mainly lower-mid 50s instead of dropping well
into the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
200 PM update...

The general pattern during this period indicates high pressure
moving east and offshore with warmer southerly flow developing ahead
of a slowly approaching frontal boundary through Wednesday. A deeper
low pressure system will form over the northern Plains and move into
the Great Lakes region by Thursday. The higher confidence in
rainfall is actually during the Thursday time period where synoptic
features moving into the area are more clear cut in the models with
good support from ensemble guidance. The earlier part of the week is
much more uncertain with deterministic global models offering up
weak forcing and limited moisture resulting in generally dry
solutions while several ensemble members appear to be wetter.
Generally accepting the NBM mean guidance in this time frame with
lowering modifications to thegridTAF PoPs in deference to the
very dry deterministic runs. Overall, the forecast will have low
chance probabilities with broad timing as any weak upper level
features are difficult to identify and time. Think there will be
plenty of dry hours each day.

Temperatures will gradually warm above normal with most areas in the
lower 80s by mid-week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
In mast cases, VFR conditions will persist through the period,
with light winds prevailing. Brief shallow valley fog is still
possible before dawn at ELM, though confidence remains low.

Outlook...

Late Friday Night through Saturday...Quiet pattern with mainly
VFR conditions.


Sunday through Monday...Small chance of a shower or storm/brief
restriction Sunday and Monday afternoon.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
PA...None.
NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ022-024-
     044>046-057.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...ES/KL
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...ES/MPH