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524
FXUS61 KBGM 291852
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
252 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Scattered showers and weak storms will continue to rotate across
the Southern Tier of NY and northeastern Pennsylvania early this
evening. Later tonight and on Thursday, drier and cooler air
will push in with quiet weather. Temperatures will warm up
Friday into the weekend with continued quiet conditions.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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252 PM update...
Main concerns in the near term remain focused on the areas of
showers and thunderstorms rotating southeast across the forecast
area later this afternoon and into the evening with locally
heavy rain the main threat...then clear and cool conditions
tonight with patchy fog...quiet/dry conditions on Thursday with
even cooler conditions expected Thu night with more fog
possible.

A slow-moving upper level short wave currently centered over
western PA, stacked on top of the associated surface low, will
pick up speed and move east across central/ern PA this evening
and tonight. This s/w will entrain a fair amount of deep
moisture as it moves east and combine with modest forcing to
trigger a blossoming area of rain showers mainly over north
central PA, but also spread farther north into s- central NY.
PWs advecting into the wave will hover around 1 inch, which is
quite below the average of 1.25" for this time of year. Surface
dew points in the lower to mid 50s are also on the low end of
the spectrum favorable for heavy rain. The amount of forcing and
available mid-level moisture is compensating for these slightly
drier parameters. There is also slow storm-motion and a pivot
point of the upper wave over n-central PA that will contribute
to a longer residence time of the rain showers and subsequent
heavier rain amounts.

Latest mesoanalysis over PA shows an axis of higher instability
with around 500 J/kg of ML CAPE between State College and
Williamsport. There is a broad area of steeper mid level lapse
rates across the region and also SI values around -1 to -2 deg C
which are also allowing for some deeper updrafts and enhanced
convection. We have already had a report of pea-size hail in
one of the storms...which could continue to be a threat along
with isolated cloud to ground lightning through the mid
evening.

The main area of concern through the next 4 hours will be over
northeast PA. Some very isolated heavy rain amounts around 1-1.5
inches are possible as well, which could lead to some localized
brief ponding of water in typical slow-draining areas.

Clouds should clear out tonight as a much drier air mass moves
in. This will combine with light winds, especially areas that
decouple from the boundary layer, and antecedent near-sfc
moisture to produce low clouds and patchy fog. Overnight lows
will bottom out in the lower to mid 40s.

The very dry air mass will continue to filter into the region
tomorrow and allow for mostly sunny skies through the day.
Cannot rule out some afternoon cumulus building up, but should
be more sun than clouds. High temperatures will rise only into
the 60s by the afternoon with breezy NW winds around 10 to 15
mph.

A stronger area of high pressure and large scale suppression
starts to build in from the west Thursday night, and skies will
remain mostly clear, which will set the stage for another
unseasonably cool night and even some patchy fog too. Lows will
fall back down into the lower to mid 40s Fri night.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
240 AM update...

High pressure will be in control for the end of the work week,
giving us quiet conditions. With northerly flow and mostly clear
skies Thursday night, good radiational cooling should take place and
lead to temperatures cooler than most guidance. The NBM Tenth
Percentile was favored for temperatures, lows will be in the upper
30s to low 40s. Temperatures begin to trend warm Friday as heights
increase with a ridge building into the region. Highs will be in the
upper 60s to mid 70s. Breezy conditions are expected under a tight
pressure gradient as peak gusts up to 20 mph possible. Overnight
lows Friday will be in the 40s. Despite skies being clear once again
Friday night, this forecast favored NBM guidance for now as a warmer
air mass continues to work its way into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
240 AM update...

The first half the weekend starts out dry but then a weak
disturbance moves in by Sunday. Chances for showers are low, in fact
just slight chance as this system will have to overcome the drier
air over the region. Weak instability could also support isolated
afternoon thunderstorms. This weak shortwave will support spotty
showers into Monday as well. A brief break is expected as another
upper ridge builds into the region. Then a weak wave embedded in the
ridge will kick off additional spotty showers on Tuesday. As with
past updates, there remains uncertainty during the early portion of
the week, especially with coverage of showers. None of the days look
like a wash out at this point though.

Temperatures will continue to slowly climb to above average during
the first half of the first week of June. Highs will range from the
70s to low 80s on Saturday but 80s will be widespread by Tuesday.
The cool nights in the 40s come to an end this forecast period as
lows in the 60s become possible by Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Weak cold front dropping slowly south across the area this
afternoon and interacting with a weak amount of instability to
trigger widespread showers and some isolated weak thunderstorms
through 6-8 PM this evening. Flight conditions at all terminals
are currently VFR, but with the introduction of showers and
increased boundary layer moisture, some MVFR vsbys and cigs are
possible through 00Z. Drier air is expected to move in from the
north/nw tonight which will act to clear out most of the clouds
and leave light winds and favorable conditions for radiational
cooling and the development of fog and scattered low clouds
through early Thu morning. Confidence in IFR conditions is
highest at ELM, while it can`t be ruled out at ITH, BGM and AVP.
RME and SYR should remain VFR through the period.

Winds gusting 10 to 15 kt this afternoon will weaken to 3 kt or
less tonight, or calm in some spots, and then become gusty again
from the northwest after 14Z Thu 10 to 15 kt.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Saturday...Quiet pattern with mainly
VFR.

Sunday through Monday...Small chance of a shower or storm/brief
restriction Sunday and Monday afternoon.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...BJT/MPH