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877
FXUS61 KBOX 010640
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
240 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Ohio Valley Friday builds slowly east this
weekend and crest over New England Sunday. This will provide dry
weather along with warm days and cool nights. The next chance of
showers, albeit very low, is Sunday night as weak low pressure
tracks south of the region. High pressure brings warm and dry
weather through the middle of next week, then the weather pattern
becomes unsettled toward the end of the week as a frontal system
approaches from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

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Another beautiful day ahead for southern New England with mainly
clear skies and seasonably warm temperatures. Today, June 1st, marks
the official start to the North Atlantic Hurricane Season. Should go
without saying it`s only a matter of when, not if, a hurricane makes
landfall along our coastline. While there have had numerous topical
storms, August of 1991 brought Hurricane Bob, the last landfalling
hurricane in southern New England. Take time today, this weekend, or
this month to review whether or not you reside in an evacuation zone
and what items you can buy right now to build out your emergency
kit. Because, let`s be honest, waiting to last minute will feel as
you are out shopping/fighting the crowds on Black Friday, minus the
deals/savings. For details on how to prepare for this hurricane
season please visit this link: noaa.gov/hurricane-prep

As for today`s conditions, surface high pressure and mid-level ridge
sits to our west and closed low over the Maritimes, this allows for
north/northwest flow and reinforces a dry airmass. While there will
be a bit of a chill in the air this morning, temperatures will
rebound nicely into the upper 70s and low 80s. Adding to this
already stunning day will be the low dewpoints/no humidity.
Seabreeze develops along the eastern coast of Massachusetts late
this morning, this onshore flow over waters cool SST and the cooler
airmass associated with the closed low off to the east/northeast
keep
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

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Tonight: Mid-level ridge shifts over New England and deamplifies by
Sunday morning. Generally a clear-ish night though increasing mid
and high clouds from west to east, mainly the second half of the
night. Light winds and generally clear skies should allow for
another cool night ahead, while NMB was too warm, did keep with the
cooler MOS guidance. Lows are upper 40s and low 50s, the urban
centers like Hartford, Providence and Boston are slightly warmer
around 55-58 degrees.

Sunday: Surface high remains in control, while mid-level has become
more zonal and returns moisture aloft. A shortwave does help to
increase cloud cover during the afternoon with a low chance of a
passing shower, mainly area southwest of Hartford late afternoon
into the early evening. Otherwise another dry and warm day is on tap
with highs a few degrees warmer in the  low and middle 80s. Because
of southwest winds, the south coast of Rhode Island and southeast
Massachusetts are a tad cooler in the middle and upper 80s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Points...

* Warm and mainly dry weather through the middle of next week

* Unsettled pattern late in the week with increasing risk of showers

Details...

Warm and mainly dry conditions expected through the middle of next
week as mid level ridging in control for much of this period. Weak
shortwave moving east from the Gt Lakes temporarily breaks down the
ridge on Sunday but not expecting much more than some extra cloud
cover as column moisture is limited. For Sun night, another
shortwave and area of enhanced moisture is forecast to track mostly
south of New Eng. There is a low risk for a few showers near the
south coast but bulk of rainfall will likely remain to the south.
Otherwise, dry through Wed with above normal temps well into the 70s
to lower 80s, but cooler along the immediate coasts due to sea-
breezes.

Forecast uncertainty increases toward the end of the week as
amplifying trough digs into the Gt Lakes with shortwave energy
rotating around the trough. Shower chances will be increasing but
timing and extent of showers and rainfall amounts are uncertain as
there are significant model differences with the timing of the front
and where a potential frontal wave develops. We followed NBM
guidance which indicates chance of showers both days and cooler
temps.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06Z TAF Update:

Today... High confidence.

VFR and dry. NNW winds less than 10 knots will give way to afternoon
seabreezes along the coast.

Tonight... High confidence.

VFR, dry weather and light/variable winds. MVFR in patchy fog
possible.

Sunday... High confidence.

VFR and dry. WSW to SW wind less than 10 knots will give way to
afternoon seabreezes along the coast.


KBOS TAF... High confidence.

VFR, dry and NW winds, seabreeze will develop late morning.

KBDL TAF... High confidence.

VFR, dry and NNW to NW winds 5-15 kt.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night through Tuesday Night: VFR.

Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
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&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Sunday... High confidence.

Very pleasant boating conditions, with weak high pressure slowly
building east and cresting over New England early Sunday. This will
provide light winds, locally onshore along with dry weather and
excellent vsby to the horizon. The only negative, is that water
temps remain chilly, only 55-60 degs.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Winds less than 25 kt.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BW/Dooley
NEAR TERM...Dooley
SHORT TERM...Dooley
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...BW/Dooley
MARINE...BW/Dooley