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841
FXUS62 KCAE 300656
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
256 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Dry high pressure will build into the region over the next
couple of days then move off the coast this weekend. Mild
afternoons with cooler than normal overnight temperatures are
expected into the weekend. As the high moves off the coast,
temperatures will moderate and moisture will slowly increase
early next week. This will result in widely scattered to
scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms early next
week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Very little to say about the weather today other than that it is
expected to be absolutely beautiful. High pressure will continue
to slowly shift into the eastern US, with our FA remaining on
the southern side of the high pressure system. PWs are 30-50% of
normal across the area which is helping to keep us drier than
normal. Bumped highs this afternoon up a degree or two given the
amount of sunshine. High pressure will remain to our north
tonight but given the dry air in place, temps should radiate
into the mid 50s for lows!

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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An upper level trough along the eastern seaboard will move to
well offshore by Saturday. This will allow a an upper level
ridge to build over the area. At the surface, a strong pressure
ridge will build southeast from the Ohio Valley into the
Carolinas and Georgia, moving off the coast Saturday afternoon.
The air mass will be quite dry with precipitable water will fall
to less than 0.5 inch through Saturday morning then slowly
increase with the surface ridge off the coast. Dew points are
expected to be in the 40s during each afternoon. Mostly sunny
skies, mild/seasonable afternoons and cool nights are expected.
With the ridge over the area Saturday morning, radiational
cooling expected, although there may be some mixing in the
boundary layer and maybe some thin high clouds moving in from
the west. High temperatures on Friday, low to mid 80s then a
little warmer on Saturday. The overnight lows Friday night in
the low to mid 50s. It could be a little cooler in outlying and
sheltered areas. The Mos and NBM temperature guidance is
consistent.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The ensemble guidance remains generally consistent from previous
runs. The deterministic guidance deviates next week with GFS
more moist and unsettled as early as Tuesday with a stronger
southern stream trough. The GEFS continues to spread moisture a
little faster than The ECMWF ensemble and the GEPS is somewhat
of a compromise. Moisture should increase Sunday as the upper
ridge moves to the coast and the Bermuda high weakens a bit
with the approach of a trough in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
The models suggest most convection should remain mainly west of
the area in the Carolina Mountains and north central Georgia
Sunday. Ensembles show an upper trough from coastal Carolina
across Florida Monday. Perhaps some weak short waves will move
across the Southeast through early next week as possible
triggers but forcing appears mainly to the south across Florida.
Air mass appears weakly unstable early in the week then
moderately unstable by mid week. A cold front may move into the
Ohio Valley southwest to the lower Mississippi Valley by next
Thursday as an upper trough moves east from the Great Lakes
region. So, slight chance mainly afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms each day possibly increasing pops later in the
week. Temperatures should rise during the period to above
normal.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the 24 hr TAF period.

High pressure ridging over the area with some high clouds
passing over the terminals. Dry air is in place and will only
get drier through the day, keeping precipitation and any lower
clouds completely at bay. So really this is just a wind
forecast, with winds picking up out of the north by mid-morning
and relaxing a bit after sunset tonight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions not expected through
the end of the week. Low chance of restrictions this weekend.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$