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407
FXUS62 KCAE 280736
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
336 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Drier, cooler weather moves in this week behind a front as
high pressure builds in from the upper Mississippi Valley. High
temperatures should be in the 80s for much of the week and the
weekend. Moisture is likely to return this weekend leading to a
chance of showers and thunderstorms into early next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Regional radar showing some scattered convection moving
northeastward across the Coastal Plain brushing the eastern
Midlands counties while the cold front remains to our west
early this morning in the Upstate. The front should continue to
push southeastward through sunrise and reach the Coastal Plain
by this afternoon. Goes derived total precipitable water shows
values at or above 1 inch across the forecast area but values
drop off behind the front and the drier air should be moving
over the area through the day behind the front as 850mb winds
shift more west-northwesterly. Upper trough axis is also to our
west currently and will cross the forecast area this afternoon.
Hi-res guidance suggests isolated showers or storms may develop
in the vicinity of the front over the Coastal Plain during peak
heating but most of the activity is expected to be east of our
forecast area, though cannot rule out an isolated shower over
the eastern Midlands where deeper moisture may be lingering with
some instability present, but generally expecting a rain free
day. There is not much cool air behind the front initially and
deeper mixing should continue to support above normal
temperatures with highs expected in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Skies are expected to clear out overnight supporting good
radiational cooling, although not ideal as the center of the
surface high remains well to the west. Expect overnight lows to
be a couple of categories cooler with lows in the  lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Dry, high pressure builds into the area from the northwest on
Wednesday. PWAT values from 0.5 to 0.75 inches indicate dry
weather and mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will be cooler
than the previous few days with the northerly flow drawing
cooler air into the region. High temperatures will be in the mid
80s to around 90. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to
low 60s Wednesday night.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NW flow persists for much of the work week favoring dry weather
and near or slightly below normal temperatures. Mean PWAT values
from the Long Range Ensemble Forecast (LREF) are around 0.75
inches through Saturday. With high pressure over the area and
dry air in place, rainfall is unlikely through the week and
during the day on Saturday. Highs during the week should mainly
be in the mid 80s.

An upper level trough will swing offshore by the weekend as
surface high pressure moves offshore. The transition to a zonal
flow pattern and the increasing atmospheric moisture points to
increasing shower and thunderstorms chances for late this
weekend into early next week. Mean PWAT values from the LREF
rise to 1 inch or above late Saturday. The deeper moisture and
upper support from shortwaves moving through the zonal flow
should allow for a chance of convection from Saturday night
through Monday. Increased cloud cover and precip may keep
temperatures around normal for the weekend with highs in the
mid to upper 80s.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Expect VFR conditions through the 24 hr forecast period.

Cold front located over the Upstate is expected to move
southeastward through the region this morning and reach the
Coastal Plain by this afternoon. Southwesterly winds ahead of
the front around 5 knots should shift to the west/northwest
behind the front and pick up to around 10 knots by late morning
with some gusts up to 20 knots through the afternoon with deep
mixing expected. Cannot rule out some patchy fog mainly
impacting AGS through sunrise if skies clear out and possible
brief stratus at OGB ahead of the frontal passage, otherwise VFR
conditions expected through the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions not expected through
the end of the week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$