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199
FXUS61 KCTP 200318
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1118 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure is building into the region. Predominantly dry
conditions, light winds and warmer temperatures are expected to
hold into the middle of the upcoming week. A storm system should
arrive later Wednesday into Thursday bringing the next chance
of showers and thunderstorms to the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Earlier cu has all but dissipated, leaving mainly clear skies
across Central PA. Surprisingly, BFD has already seen it`s vsby
drop below 1 mile, so fog is already beginning to form in a few
favored locations.

A light easterly flow in the llvls persists and could once
again bring in Atlantic moisture overnight. Expect stratus to
return to the ern half (or more) of the CWA. There could also be
fog around overnight, but lack of rainfall during the day and
the potential for the development of low clouds may work against
it. Dewpoints should remain in the 50s, however, and min temps
should dip to near the dewpoint.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As with Sunday AM, any low clouds will have to burn away with
the mid-May sun. However, earlier dissipation of the stratus
should help temps Monday aftn rise a few to several degrees
warmer than Sunday`s maxes.

There could be just enough instability across the nrn tier of
counties in the aftn to pop a lonesome SHRA/TSRA. Left PoPs in
the 20-30pct range for now. The support aloft is tough to find
except for perhaps a short wave trough rolling over the upper
Great Lakes.

Mon night looks similar to the last few nights, with perhaps
less of a reprisal of the nighttime stratus. There could still
be some fog, but we`ve only mentioned patchy fog for the time
being. Mins will probably be a bit milder than Mon AM as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Tuesday and Wednesday will be very warm days with south to
southwesterly flow and plentiful sunshine. Expect highs to reach
the 80s both days, and some valley spots could even touch 90
degrees on Wed aftn.

Surface low pressure is progged to track north of the Great
Lakes and well north of PA during the mid to late week period.
The associated cold front will cross Pennsylvania Wed night or
early Thurs, accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms.

After the front moves through, uncertainty remains as to how
far to our south it will settle before stalling. This could keep
a chc of showers across at least southern PA through the end of
the week.

There is considerable uncertainty heading into next weekend,
but it appears that there is a chc that our weather could
remain unsettled.
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&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through the rest of the evening as
high pressure continues to build eastward. Restrictions are
expected overnight, however, as moist flow off of the Atlantic
leads to the development of low stratus for sites east of the
Allegheny Front. IFR/LIFR ceilings are expected along with
MVFR/IFR visibilities. Some fog development is expected for
western sites as well where skies will remain mainly clear.

Fog across the west will dissipate quickly in the morning, but
the low clouds to the east will be slower to break up. MVFR
ceilings could remain in place across the Lower Susquehanna
Valley through 18Z. Once the clouds do finally dissipate, VFR
conditions are expected area-wide with mainly clear skies and
light winds. Some guidance shows the potential for a few showers
or possibly a thunderstorm across the northern tier tomorrow
afternoon, but confidence is too low to include any mention of
rain in the TAF for BFD at this point.


Outlook...

Tue...VFR/no sig wx.

Wed-Thu...Chance of t-storms.

Fri...Mainly VFR, slight chance of showers.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Evanego
NEAR TERM...Evanego
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Evanego
LONG TERM...Evanego/Bowen
AVIATION...Bauco