-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
711
FXUS63 KDDC 262004
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
304 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-- Changed Discussion --
- Highs in the 80s will be likely (+80%) through early next
  week. There is a a 30 to 50% chance for highs to be 90 degree
  or higher in a few locations on Monday.

- A brief cool down will follow a cold frontal passage early
  next week. Ahead of this cold front temperatures will be in
  the 80s on Monday. On Tuesday the highs will be only in the
  70s. Chance for highs on Tuesday to be >80 degrees is 20% or
  less.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

No surprises from the latest ensemble clusters today given run
to run consistency and ongoing agreement between the short term
ensembles. Dry and warm conditions are expected through the
start of next week. Using the mean 850mb temperatures from the
short term ensembles from 00z to 00z each day as a guide for
temperature trends through the weekend, it appears that there
will be no major swings in temperatures. Additionally,
considering that temperatures over the past few days have been
closer to the 75th percentile, we will favor highs a few degrees
higher than what the NBM suggests. As a result, confidence is
60-70% that high temperatures through the weekend will range
from the mid to upper 80s.

Monday may end up being the warmest day during this time frame,
given the wedge of warmer 850mb air that will be present ahead
of our next approaching cold front. We will need to monitor the
speed of this cold front early next week, as 20-30% of the
ensembles indicated a quicker frontal passage across western
Kansas. As a result, the warm up that nearly 50% of the ensemble
clusters are currently predicting may not be as dramatic as
previously forecasted. Even with the possibility of a quicker
frontal passage, highs on Monday are still expected to reach at
least the upper 80s to near 90 degree range, with highs in the
90s not out of the question for some locations. The latest NBM
indicates a 20-40% chance for highs exceeding 90 degrees west of
a Garden City to Meade line.

Despite the differences in timing of this surface cold front
early next week, all ensembles agree that a brief cool down is
expected following its passage. Be prepared for temperatures to
drop from 85-90F on Monday to highs only in the 60s to mid 70s
on Tuesday. Confidence is low (20-40%) regarding how cool it
will be on Tuesday afternoon due to uncertainty about the timing
of cooler air spreading into western Kansas. Much like
yesterday, the clusters appear divided, with 60% predicting
highs mainly in the 60s to lower 70s, while 40% suggest a more
moderate impact, with highs in the 70s on Tuesday. The current
forecast seems to be a reasonable compromise, reflecting the
brief cooldown.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

South to southeast winds at 10 to 15 knots this Thursday
afternoon will decrease to less than 10 knots between 00z and
03z Friday. BUFR soundings and short-term ensembles are in good
agreement, indicating limited moisture across western Kansas. As
a result, VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert