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746
FXUS63 KFGF 262008
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
308 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Gusty winds to 45 mph in portions of eastern North Dakota
  into the Red River Valley may bring minor wind-related
  impacts this afternoon.

- Near critical fire weather conditions continue through the
  afternoon today.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 249 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...Synopsis...

Large and anomalously strong upper ridging over the Great Plains
into Upper Midwest can be seen on water vapor imagery this
afternoon. A shortwave trough pushing east into the Northern
Plains out of the northern Rockies can also be seen. This
incoming shortwave trough is helping increase surface pressure
gradient across the Dakotas as lee troughing impinges upon
surface high pressure within the Upper Midwest. A warm and very
dry air mass is also overspread across the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest. This is driving near critical fire weather
conditions within our area, along with potential minor impacts
from high winds, this afternoon.

Upper ridging is only shunted some with the incoming shortwave
trough moving through our region tonight/tomorrow. Thus,
summer-like warmth will continue into this weekend. Another
period of gusty winds Sunday ahead of an incoming cold front
amid similarly dry and warm air mass may allow for another
period of fire weather conditions. Sunday`s cold front looks to
have a notable air mass change behind it, bringing temperatures
closer to average to perhaps slightly below average. Gusty
winds behind the cold front into Monday can also be anticipated.
Ensemble guidance still indicates a chance for light rain with
this as well.

...Gusty Winds and Fire Weather Conditions This Afternoon...

Winds continue to gust up to the mid 40s mph, with sustained
winds around 30 mph in the northern Red River Valley into
eastern North Dakota mainly north of Hwy 200. For this reason,
the Wind Advisory was extended into portions of eastern North
Dakota. Gusty winds may bring minor impacts in these areas.

These winds along with RH values are already 25-30%. Thus, near
critical fire weather conditions are being realized, with
localized critical fire weather conditions being observed
intermittently.

Winds will being to decrease around sunset near 7 PM. This is also
when RH values begin to increase as temperatures cool for the
evening.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 114 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Gusty winds and LLWS will be main hazards within the TAF period.
Southerly winds 20-35kt will remain over our area through 00Z.
After 00Z, winds will decrease to around 10-15kt ahead of an
incoming front. This front will move west to east across the
region between 00Z-12Z shifting winds out of the south ahead of
the front to out of the west behind the front.

After 00Z and ahead of the front, LLWS can be expected mainly
within Minnesota through 10Z, with 45kt to 2kft forecast at KTVF
and KBJI. After 10Z, the front will help shift LLWS potential
out of our area into central MN.

Otherwise, confident VFR conditions are forecast throughout the
TAF period. Such dry air mass over the region will help limit
fog potential, with fog not anticipated tonight/Friday morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ND...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-054.
MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001-004-007.
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&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...CJ