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106
FXUS62 KILM 230122
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
922 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to generally prevail through mid week, especially
near the coast. More unsettled weather should return late week
as we see at least some fringe effects from low pressure tracking
northward from the Gulf of Mexico.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast on track with only minor update to account for spotty
shwrs developing ahead of weak front moving down from the north.
Updated the aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Isolated showers remain possible this evening, mainly across
southeast NC, as surface high pressure ridging down from the north
pushes a backdoor front into the area before stalling. Low clouds
behind the front (to the north and northwest) are expected to be
widespread overnight into mid-morning Monday. Not sure how expansive
the cloud cover will be in our area, with best chance for prolonged
cloudy skies in the morning across northern counties of the CWA
(Robeson and Bladen). Lows tonight will be warm for this time of
year in the upper 60s/near 70F.

Lingering clouds Monday morning will scatter out by Monday
afternoon, allowing for temps to reach ~85F across SE NC and upper
80s NE SC. Two forces will be competing late Monday afternoon/early
evening which will determine rain chances. First, mid level ridge
builds in from the southwest tonight into tomorrow, with decent
subsidence seen on forecast soundings at 850mb. Second, PWATs will
increase to 2" by Monday afternoon with a surface trough across
central SC. Have included slight chance pops for isolated storms
across western areas/inland NE SC starting late afternoon, but we
shall see if forecasted subsidence keeps a lid on any convection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Highlights:
*No significant impacts expected

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details:

Generally weak high pressure ridging should prevail, although
abundant moisture and some forcing from an inland surface trough,
coastal sea breeze and mid-level shortwave energy will lead to some
showers and possible thunderstorms, especially inland. Although deep
layer shear looks sufficient for some storm organization instability
should be minimal enough to warrant any appreciable severe storm
risk. Temperatures should be at or above normal through the period
with highs generally in the mid to upper 80s and lows mainly mid to
upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights:
*No significant impacts expected through at least Thu
*At least fringe impacts possible from a likely tropical cyclone
moving inland from the Gulf of Mexico late this week

Confidence:
*Moderate to High through Thu
*Low Thu night through Sun

Details: Low to mid-level high pressure looks to prevail into Thu
with mainly dry weather, although things could be changing pretty
quickly Thu depending on how where a low pressure system to the
southwest moves. There is a high chance this system will be a
tropical cyclone according to the NHC but confidence is low
regarding its track/strength. Thus, it`s still way too early to
know if we`ll see any direct impacts from this storm here in NE
SC/SE NC late in the week but we encourage everyone to stay
updated on the forecast through the week. At the very least
we`ll likely be dealing with higher than normal rain chances at
some point.

To get the latest on the tropics, including preparedness info, visit
our tropical page at: weather.gov/ilm/tropical.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will build down from the north continuing to push
a weak backdoor cold front south. A few showers developed ahead
of the front with some brief heavy rain, with MVFR ceilings and
a brief drop to IFR at ILM, but no real support for lightning
except in one storm which did not affect the terminals. Should
see a few shwrs, but too isolated to put in terminals. Bigger
concern will be with low clouds and fog as winds become near
calm with front sagging into the area and shallow moisture
present, especially where showers developed. Main timing would
be 08z-12z, but some models show low clouds lingering through
14z. Have included some MVFR fog with potential for IFR
ceilings.

Extended Outlook...Mainly dry and VFR until midweek when the
next cold front approaches. Expect daily early morning MVFR/IFR
due to fog/stratus.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday...Surface high pressure ridging down from the north
will turn current SW winds to northeasterly overnight, remaining 10
kts or less sustained, with a bit of an easterly push Monday
afternoon with sea breeze. Seas generally around 2 ft, with 3
footers entering southeast NC coastal waters Monday afternoon as ENE
10 sec swell dominates the wave spectrum.

Monday night through Friday...High pressure to the north will be
shifting offshore later in the week with onshore winds persisting.
There is pretty good confidence through Thursday but less thereafter
as much will depend on the track/strength of low pressure, expected
to be a tropical cyclone by the NHC, moving north from the Gulf of
Mexico into the Southeast U.S.. For now we will show increasing
winds/seas as the pressure gradient picks up with at least Small
Craft Advisory conditions starting as early as Thu night.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal flooding remains a threat into early this week with high
astronomical tides. The beaches are expected to reach minor flooding
(advisory criteria) again during Monday and Tuesday midday high
tides. The Lower Cape Fear River is forecasted to reach moderate
flood stage (coastal flood warning criteria) during daytime high
tides through Tuesday, with minor flooding during overnight high
tides, with upstream waters working their way down the river combining
with high astronomical tides. Coastal flooding along the Lower
Cape Fear River will impact Downtown Wilmington and Brunswick
County on the west side of the river, especially during daytime
high tides.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 5 AM EDT
     Monday for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RGZ
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...RJB/VAO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM