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423
FXUS62 KILM 160127
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
927 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong to severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon into
this evening ahead of a cold front that will drop in from the
north. High pressure should bring dry weather Thursday with
pleasant temperatures. Rain chances will increase again this
weekend as a new storm system advances eastward. Drier and
warmer weather should develop next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
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SVR Watch #245 has been allowed to expire at 900 PM EDT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An upper low will move through the area this afternoon and
evening, bringing scattered thunderstorms to the area as it
interacts with warm, moist air and a frontal boundary. Some of
these storms could produce large hail and wind gusts of 60 mph
or greater. The area is in a severe thunderstorm watch until 8
PM. Convection should come to an end this evening with dry
weather expected Thursday. Lows tonight will fall to the lower
60s with highs Thursday in the lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
An H5 ridge axis will move across the area Thursday night and
off the coast Friday morning. This change will allow the old
low off the Mid-Atlantic coast to shift farther offshore and
allow a dampening shortwave to move across the forecast area
during Friday afternoon/evening with some increases in rainfall
chances. Would trend with higher POPs by that time however
moisture is still somewhat limited Friday for this part of the
Carolinas, with better advection earlier on in the long term
period. Blend of MAV/MET looks reasonable for the highs/lows
during this period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The mid/upper low will be across the MS Valley during Saturday
and will direct impulses from the Deep South into the Carolinas
along with an increase in PWATs (around 2 inches) during the
day. GFS ensemble precipitation also suggest categorical to
likely POPs will be needed. Sunday looks wet as well with the
upper trough across the Carolinas. Big questions remain for the
Monday-Tuesday with potential/positioning for a closed low
development farther east than currently shown. If the cut-off
occurs farther east then POPs will trend downward due to more
influence of nearby mid/upper ridge across the Carolinas. At
this time, favor the drier scenario Monday through Wednesday,
but will need to closely watch how this evolves. Otherwise,
highs will be at or above normal through Sunday, then below
normal Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Worst of the convection will move off the mainland thru 10 pm
EDT, with residual brief MVFR and possibly IFR convective
flight restrictions. Could see gusts at 35+ kt at the coastal
terminals as they move off the mainland into the local waters.
Otherwise, look at VFR at all terminals going into the pre-dawn
Thu hrs initially. However, guidance indifferent with potential
for IFR/LIFR low stratus and fog conditions in the 06Z-14Z
window but have leaned toward the worst case scenario given the
recent rains and light NW-N winds less than 4 kt. Any prevailing
mid-level cloud deck would help aid the prevention of the worse
case flight restrictions. Look for improvements to ceilings
above MVFR by 15Z. Sfc pg rather relaxed and will initially
indicate NNW-NNE winds around 5 kt after daybreak Thu with a
weak sea breeze possible in the aftn.

Extended Outlook...VFR conditions to dominate Thu night
thru Fri. The next system with potential periodic flight
restrictions will affect the area this weekend into Mon.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday...Southwest winds to 10 to 15 KT are expected
tonight and will become N to NW by daybreak before becoming
light and variable by afternoon. Seas of 3 to 5 FT tonight will
subside to 2 to 4 FT Thursday.

Thursday night through Monday...A large area of low pressure
off the Mid-Atlantic coast will drift farther offshore Thursday
night into Friday. Approaching low pressure from the west will
allow winds to become southerly during Saturday with veering
Sunday as the low moves off the coast. Northerly winds are
expected Monday with the low possibly off the NC/SC coast. If
the low stays just offshore then the northerly winds will be
higher.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: Yesterday`s strong onshore winds have
abated, however a 4 foot southerly swell every 8 seconds
continues to crash onshore. South-facing beaches on Brunswick
County and extreme northeasterly Horry County run orthogonal to
this swell and will have the largest potential of rip current
activity through this evening.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SRP
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...SRP/31
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...