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476
FXUS61 KILN 200231
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1031 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Much above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions are
expected through Monday, with a chance of showers and storms
returning as early as Tuesday. The next widespread chance for
showers and storms is likely Wednesday and Wednesday night with
the approach and passage of a cold front. Slightly cooler and
drier conditions are in store for the end of workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A few stray showers/storms were able to erupt across our far
north this evening, likely triggered by a subtle outflow
boundary or gravity wave. These should not last that much longer
into the night as instability slowly drops and forcing becomes
minimal.

Otherwise, a mid level ridge over the area this evening will
slowly sag southeast overnight. There will be some convective
debris spillover across the north (mainly cirrus), but that
should thin overnight. The south is expected to remain mainly
clear. Some valley fog may develop across our southern/eastern
river valleys. Tonight will be warm with lows ranging from 60
to 65 with perhaps a few upper 50s in rural/sheltered locations.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Mid level ridge to remain centered just to ILN/s south
Monday/Monday night.Expect daylight hours on Monday to remain
dry with few to scattered cumulus clouds. Another warm day is in
store for the region with highs in the mid and upper 80s.

A shortwave tracks thru the Great Lakes with the ridge being
suppressed a little further south Monday night. Most models keep
the area dry but a few of the solutions allow a
shower/thunderstorm to drop into ILN/s northern counties late
Monday night. Have kept the forecast dry at this time but there
is some uncertainty.

Mild temperatures drop to lows in the lower and middle 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A warm day will be in place for Tuesday with high temperatures
in the upper 80s. There will be the potential for afternoon pop
up thunderstorms with the heating of the day. These will
dissipate during the evening leaving a brief period of dry
conditions.

An area of showers and thunderstorms is expected during the
morning hours on Wednesday. How quickly this moves out will have
an impact on how widespread the severe weather will be later in
the day. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop
during the afternoon and evening hours. Some of these
thunderstorms will have the potential to be severe with damaging
winds. Tornadoes cannot be ruled out. In addition, due to
several rounds of precipitation expected, flash flooding will
also be a concern. Expect this activity to continue into the
night as a cold front works through the region. This feature
will continue to push through on Thursday and precipitation
chances will taper off.

Cooler air will be ushered into the region with highs in the
70s expected for Thursday and lows in the 50s Thursday night.
There is still quite a bit of model variation for Friday into
the weekend on how much moisture will be drawn up into the
region. Due to continued uncertainty during this time have
limited precipitation chances Friday through Sunday to no more
than the chance category.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mid level ridge axis across the region has prevented weak front
to our northwest from making much progress southeast. Although
the mid level ridge axis will slowly sag southeast overnight,
the weak front will get weaker and more ill defined, and with
loss of diurnal heating, any convection associated with it will
wane. Thus, only some evening high based cumulus or altocumulus
clouds are expected with just some skiffs of cirrus overnight.
Light to calm winds will bring the chance of some river valley
fog. Thus, KLUK may see some MVFR visibilities with TEMPO IFR
visibilities. Valley fog should dissipate around 13Z.

Mid level ridge axis will continue to slowly sag southeast on
Monday. A mid level disturbance will move east/northeast on the
back side of the mid level ridge into the Great Lakes.
Convection sparking with this feature looks to stay mainly north
of our forecast area. Thus, Monday will feature more SCT
diurnal cumulus clouds, which should dissipate after sunset,
leaving some high level clouds in their place. Winds will
increase from the south and southwest between 5 and 10 knots
toward 16Z.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Tuesday. Thunderstorms likely
Wednesday into Wednesday night. MVFR/IFR ceilings and
visibilities to linger into Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman/AR
NEAR TERM...Hickman/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Hickman