-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
971
FXUS61 KILN 221746
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
146 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonably warm temperatures continue through the entire week
into the upcoming weekend. Periods of showers and storms will
occur at times through the upcoming weekend and early next
week, with an unsettled pattern expected through at least
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Radar imagery at 10AM continues to show the best convection from
the decaying MCS lingering across southwest OH into portions of
north-central KY. An MCV also visible on radar is barreling
towards central OH, but this feature will not really impact our
fa. While convection is expected to continue to weaken in
overall intensity as it tracks further eastward, the
environmental air mass may continue to support thunder/lightning
across portions of our south through the remainder of the late
morning and perhaps early afternoon hours.

A relative minimum in convection is expected through the bulk
of the afternoon hours. CAMs continue to be fairly meager with
any initiation during peak heating hours when CAPE and lapse
rates (particularly in the lower levels) will be most conducive
for strong/severe storm potential. Thus, while the afternoon
period will still have to be monitored for any CI, it does not
appear favorable. If any storms do happen to materialize, the
primary threats would be localized downbursts and large hail -
wind shear is not strong/favorable enough to warrant a tornado
concern.

There is a better signal in CAMs for convection during the
evening and overnight period when forcing increases. With better
forcing, we will also slightly improve wind shear values as
well, which could lead to a better window of severe potential
mainly during the late evening and early overnight period.
However, this potential will likely still be limited and does
not have the greatest signal given latest trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
For late this evening into tonight, some lingering SHRA/TSRA
will persist through the nighttime, mainly near/S of the OH
Rvr, but the prospect of a more widespread strong to severe
storm potential for tonight is quite low.

Coverage of activity should increase gradually past midnight
into the predawn hours, particularly near/S of the OH Rvr, with
one or more clusters of storms possible in these areas overnight
into Thursday morning. So a few rumbles are expected from time-
to-time through the night tonight across srn parts of the area.

By the afternoon, the stalled front will attempt to nudge back
to the N, perhaps getting somewhere in the vicinity of the I-70
corridor. This will occur as a S/W ejects E through KY, with
better instby advecting back into the srn half or so of the ILN
FA. The forcing for convection Thursday appears to be
(ironically) better/greater than will be the case today,
particularly for srn parts of the local area and N KY where
SHRA/TSRA activity by early to mid afternoon should be fairly
widespread. Suppose that an isolated strong to severe storm
cannot be ruled out Thursday morning into the afternoon,
especially if ample destabilization can take place with an
influx of better LL moisture to the N into early afternoon.
Gusty winds again would be the primary threat, along with very
heavy downpours and brief ponding of water on roads in the most
persistent storms (as PWATs will be >=125% seasonal norms).
Expect the best coverage during the daytime Thursday to be near,
and especially S of, a line from Franklin Co IN to Fairfield Co
OH.

More expansive cloud cover and pcpn should keep high temps a
bit cooler (mid/upper 70s) in N/NE KY and the lower Scioto
Valley compared to other locales further to the NW in WC OH and
EC IN (lower 80s) where there will be some sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The extended period will begin in a zonal flow pattern as periodic
pieces of shortwave energy push east across the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys. The first of these should bring an increase in cloud cover
and precipitation on Friday, mainly across our southern reaches of
the CWA.

A drying period looks to arrive on Saturday before a stronger
disturbance approaches Sunday. At this time, guidance shows a rather
deep surface low tracking across Wisconsin and Lake Michigan on
Sunday/Sunday night which would increase the potential for strong to
severe storms (increased vertical wind profile, better forcing).

An upper trough moves into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley late
Monday into Tuesday, finally bringing a return to near normal
temperatures after an extended warm spell.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Complex of storms has pushed east of the terminals this
afternoon. A lull in pcpn/storm activity is expected through the
remainder of the afternoon and perhaps into the early evening.
There will be a fair amount of cu around still, primarily VFR.
Brief periods of MVFR CIGs are possible this afternoon however,
but this should be pretty limited. Expect breezy conditions with
sustained winds of 10-15 kts and gusts of 20-25 kts, mainly
through the early evening.

Chances for storms will increase late this evening, closer to
00z for all terminals. Only put in a VCTS mention for now until
confidence increases on storm coverage across these terminals.
Shower/storm activity will continue into the middle of the night
before waning and shifting eastward. A weak frontal boundary
will begin to slide through. Winds will weaken and become
variable around 5 kts with this washed out boundary.

Guidance does hint at potential MVFR CIGs developing Thursday
morning. Better chances and coverage expected for KCVG/KLUK and
perhaps KILN. Confidence is lower on northern terminals, so will
have to see how things trend.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times through Sunday. MVFR
ceilings possible early Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...Clark
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Clark