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414
FXUS64 KLIX 310654
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
154 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 153 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Severe TS watch canceled.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Surface analysis this morning showed a weak frontal boundary
stalled across the local forecast area. Although not appreciable
temp difference on either side of the boundary, there was a
notable dewpoint gradient. Moisture convergence was enhance along
this boundary this morning as easterly winds increased due to
surface ridge oriented northeast of the area. This, combined with
strong daytime heating initiated late morning and early afternoon
convection. All this outflow driven activity that started this
morning all around Lake Pontchartrain is on the rapid downward
trend of intensity and generally moving offshore. A few storms
have recent developed west of I-55 along a west to northwest
moving outflow boundary. Once all this activity dissipates over
the next few hours, should be done with the rain for the rest of
the evening and overnight period.

Friday should see a more westward shift to rain chances. Weak
upper level ridging in the wake of longwave trough currently
oriented along the Eastern Seaboard should stunt tstorm
development in the eastern half the CWA as it slides east across
the CWA. Coming in from the west, a shortwave will be riding on
the southern edge of a broader trough near the High Plains. This
feature will be tracking eastward through the Central Plains late
Friday afternoon. The far southeastern edge of this wave should
just barely be reaching into the northwestern CWA. This, combined
with PW`s not much under 2" (around the 90th percentile), will
likely initiate scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms by
around noon. Greatest POPs should be northwest of BTR, closer to
the shortwave. Will need to monitor for flash flooding with PW`s
this high. Not a huge concern, but worth watching.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

As the sfc low ejects to the NE it will cause the deep moisture
field to also spread east(moving our barrier east) setting up new
gradients. The "barrier" gradient looks to be found from west of
Tallahassee northward well into central Tennessee then joining
the sfc low to the north. The next gradient forms from SE Oklahoma
to BTR to NEW. These two avenues are also where most of the sh/ts
develop and travel except most storms with the eastern boundary
should be moving north bound unless cold pools can propagate
storms southward, while the western boundary would still be the
MCS path to the SE bringing our rain chances higher Sat. After
Sat, it is quite difficult to have enough confidence in any
particular outcome. But global models are causing the entire gulf
south flow to move gradients and boundaries northward as another
cold front moves southward out of Canada. We should see the first
glimpse of this late Monday as it moves into the northern tier of
states. This is advertised to be close to the area by late Thu and
into the gulf before stalling late Fri or early Sat of next week.
Yes, we are far away for any strength of forecasting but when all
global models agree on the same solution for systems in the
westerlies, it does make one take notice. But we do need to factor
in the time of year and that most of these systems stall before
getting here or over the area. We will need to wait and see.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

A line of storms is moving eastward, now impacting KBTR and
expected to impact KMCB by about 1:30am. This line will bring
winds gusting to 30kt and TSRA. It is expected to weaken before
impacting other terminals. Generally, winds will be southeasterly
and light through the night, but build to 10-15kt by the end of
the period tomorrow. Notable are the chance of reduced
visibilities but no restrictions around sunrise at KMCB and the
inclusion of VCTS late in the period at KBTR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

A very normal summer pattern is setting up over the northern gulf
which is an onshore flow as fronts or troughs stall well inland. The
fcast will reflect this as southerly winds of 10-15kt will remain
over all waters into the new week. Any storms that are capable of
developing or moving offshore will be able to produce erratic and
much higher wind speeds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  69  86  68 /  50  20  80  40
BTR  89  74  89  73 /  60  20  70  20
ASD  90  74  89  72 /  30  20  70  40
MSY  89  77  89  76 /  40  20  70  30
GPT  88  75  87  72 /  20  20  70  40
PQL  91  73  87  71 /  10  20  70  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...ME