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768
FXUS64 KMEG 201851
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
151 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 151 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Highs are expected to remain in the upper 80s and low 90s through
Sunday. During this timeframe, lows will be in the 60s. A few rumbles
of thunder and isolated showers are possible across our north
Saturday and Sunday. On Monday, a cold front will approach the
region, bringing chances for rain and thunder. Through the rest of
next week, highs are forecast to drop into the 70s with lows in
the 60s.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Our current weather pattern is likely to see a significant shift
early next week as the upper air pattern becomes more
progressive. The past few days have seen a trough barrel its way
across the upper Midwest with a closed low over Appalachia shyly
assimilate with the mid latitude westerlies. In their wake, high
pressure over the Mid South will persist for just a couple more
days before eventually being shoved south by a new trough ejecting
from the Rockies, which will provide our next chances for
precipitation.

The current expectation is for highs to remain in the upper 80s
and low 90s with low temperatures around 60 to 65. Fog chances
have evaporated over the last couple nights with soil moisture
beginning to dry up and has become less of an areal concern. By
Monday afternoon, a cold front associated with next week`s wave
will arrive and drop our highs into the 70s with similar lows to
this week.

PoPs remain low across the region until Monday and Tuesday. Some
evidence exists for isolated showers and couple rumbles of thunder
across our far northern regions as the current area of high
pressure shifts to our south in response to next week`s low
approaching. By the Monday/Tuesday timeframe PoPs and thunder
chances increase over much of the region as a cold front passes
through. The exact severity of any thunderstorms is still
difficult to determine, but there is the potential for some
stronger storms. Future discussions will likely expand upon this
topic. After Tuesday, models quickly lose confidence as a branch
of the northern stream attempts to phase with this wave
displaying varying levels of success.
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&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

The Midsouth will remain under an upper level ridge through the
next 30 hours. This ridge will remain centered over TX, with
light northwest flow aloft over the Midsouth.

The main convective track will remain over KS and MO, but there
remains a potential for SHRA to enter northeast AR through 00Z.
HREF indicates minimal potential for TS at JBR and near zero
chances at the remaning TAF sites.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...PWB