Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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611 FXUS64 KMEG 201753 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 1253 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Mainly dry weather is expected across the Mid-South through the weekend. Temperatures will remain above normal through Sunday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. A cold front will move through the region Monday night through Wednesday morning. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front and cooler temperatures behind the front. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Skies are mostly clear across the Mid-South early this morning with temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Some patchy fog has developed over eastern portions of the region. Currently, a cold front extends from eastern Iowa through northwest Missouri and into southwest Kansas. This front will move east today. A few showers have developed ahead of this front and some of this activity may sneak into portions of northeast Arkansas later this morning before dying out. Otherwise, a dry and very warm day is expected across the region. Temperatures will be above normal with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. By Saturday, the cold front will move into the eastern Great Lakes region with a second cold front moving across the Central Plains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of this front late tonight with some of the activity possible moving into portions of northeast Arkansas Saturday morning with dry weather expected across the remainder of the Mid-South. Temperatures will be similar to today with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. On Sunday, the cold front will move southeast into central Missouri. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will again form ahead of the front and may move into northern sections of the Mid-South with the remainder of the region remaining dry and very warm. By Monday, the cold front is expected to move into eastern Arkansas with scattered thunderstorms expected across much of the Mid-South. This front will continue to move slowly through the region from Monday night through Wednesday with more scattered thunderstorms forming ahead of the front. Behind the front, cooler air will move into the region with highs on Tuesday and Wednesday in the upper 70s to mid 80s. High pressure will build into the region by Thursday bringing dry weather and below normal temperatures. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1252 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 The Midsouth will remain under an upper level ridge through the next 30 hours. This ridge will remain centered over TX, with light northwest flow aloft over the Midsouth. The main convective track will remain over KS and MO, but there remains a potential for SHRA to enter northeast AR through 00Z. HREF indicates minimal potential for TS at JBR and near zero chances at the remaning TAF sites. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...PWB