-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
959
FXUS64 KMRX 301055
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
655 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 247 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Key Message:

Remember the nice weather yesterday? Let`s do that again today...

Discussion:

Currently clear skies early this morning as we remain on the
southern edge of the trough, with surface high pressure. This is
leading to a fairly chilly morning for late May, with most locations
dipping into the 50`s and some of the higher elevations dropping
into the 40`s. The drier air is also helping to keep away fog
development even with these low temperatures and once the sun rises
we`ll quickly warm back up to within a few degrees of yesterdays
high temperatures. Expect mostly clear skies with some passing high
level clouds. Winds will be calmer today as the surface high sits
more directly over the southern Appalachians with winds expected to
be less than 10 mph across the Valley. Overnight tonight into
tomorrow the dry air and winds out of the north/northwest will once
again drop temperatures below normal with much of northeast TN and
southwest VA dropping into the 40`s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Key Messages:

1. Dry weather will continue through Friday night.

2. Chances for showers and thunderstorms start to creep back into
the region starting Saturday afternoon. Rain chances to continue
into the middle part of next week.

Discussion:

In the upper levels, a ridge will build into the region on Friday.
On Saturday afternoon, a more chaotic pattern moves in with a couple
of shortwaves likely to move through the region through Monday. At
the surface, high pressure is over the region until a low moves in
to Illinois on Saturday. As this low tracks northeast, it will not
be a clean frontal passage for our region since no wind shift or
dropping dew points are forecast. The front does come close enough
to bring showers and storms and that boundary will likely linger for
the Sunday through Monday timeframe.

Dry weather will continue through Saturday morning. By Saturday
afternoon, low chances for showers and thunderstorms start to
return. Rain chances will continue through Monday as the boundary
lingers. Best chance for showers and storms will be during max
heating but with these synoptic features, activity could pop up at
anytime.

Tuesday and Wednesday, showers and storms will be more diurnal with
most activity in the afternoon/evening hours. Dew points will be
creeping up to near 70 by then and highs will be warm in the 80s.
Forecast rainfall totals through Wednesday are currently around one
inch or less but it is getting harder to predict with scattered
showers and storms that are hit and miss in nature.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours with a few passing
high clouds and light winds as the primary weather expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             81  57  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  77  53  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       78  53  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              73  45  76  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....McD
AVIATION...