-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
429
FXUS66 KMTR 181003
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
303 AM PDT Sat May 18 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 300 AM PDT Sat May 18 2024

Quiet weather persists. Stratus coverage expected to dissipate by
mid-to-late morning with clearer, sunnier conditions expected
during the afternoon. Temperatures cool down slightly Saturday
before a weak warming trend begins Sunday. For coastal areas,
stratus will return during the evening hours but shouldn`t extend
too far inland.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM PDT Sat May 18 2024

Stratus coverage is increasing over the Central Coast, North Bay,
and portions of the rest of the Bay Area. Inland stratus coverage is
a little patchier tonight than last night with the lowest clouds
staying closer to the coast. Friday`s high temperatures were limited
in areas where widespread stratus lingered through the late morning
hours and prevented increased surface warming from occurring. In the
case of Monterey, airport observations showed unbroken stratus
coverage throughout the entirety of Friday with the recorded high 6
degrees cooler than average. A similar scenario may occur along the
coast again today and help keep coastal temperatures slightly cooler
than originally forecast. Stratus coverage is expected to dissipate
for along the coast and inland by mid to late morning with sunny
skies returning during the afternoon. Chances for coastal drizzle
are lower than yesterday but cannot rule out the possibility of a
trace to a few hundredths of an inch accumulating.

An additional influence on today`s high temperatures is a weak
surface cold front that will move through the Bay Area today. This
will bring slightly cooler (3-4 degrees) temperatures inland where
stratus coverage is less widespread and has a less dominant
influence. Precipitation is not expected to occur with this system.
Despite temperatures being slightly cooler, highs should still be in
the mid to upper 70`s inland and upper 50`s to low 60`s along the
coast. All together, should be a pleasant day with seasonally warm
temperatures and sunny skies in the afternoon. Take some time to get
outside today and enjoy it!
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM PDT Sat May 18 2024

Upper level zonal flow will gradually deepen as a longwave upper
level trough moves into the Western United States over the weekend.
A weak warming trend will take place Sunday through the middle of
the work week with inland highs in the mid 70`s to low 80`s. Minor
heat risk is expected for individuals who are extremely sensitive to
heat Monday and Tuesday. Ensemble consensus largely shows inland
highs in the mid 70`s to low 80`s through mid-week with higher end
scenarios showing highs up to 85-87 degrees. Tuesday looks to be the
warmest day with probabilistic guidance showing a 50-60% chance of
portions of the North Bay and South Bay breaching the low to mid
80`s. Highs become more uncertain Thursday and Friday with ensembles
agreeing that temperatures will cool down but they did not reach an
agreement as to how significant this cool down will be.

Upper level troughing looks to persist through the week with
shortwave ridging building Friday into next weekend. Persistence is
key for this stratus forecast wherein stratus will continue to
develop along the coast overnight, clear out by mid to late morning,
and return during the early evening hours. A deeper marine layer is
expected to persist which will help keep stratus more confined to
coastal areas and not move as far inland.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1041 PM PDT Fri May 17 2024

IFR and MVFR CIGs last into the mid morning to late for most TAF
sites, but last longer for coastal areas and around the Monterey
Bay. Winds stay light to moderate through the morning. Cloud cover
thins in the mid morning to early afternoon Saturday, leading to
widespread for the TAF sites, but status lingers on the immediate
coast. Expect moderate winds Saturday afternoon that last into the
night. Coastal cloud cover moves slightly inland Friday evening,
affecting SNS and MRY.

Vicinity of SFO...Moments of MVFR CIGs arrive in the early morning
and through the mid morning before clearing. Expect light winds
overnight with  moderate westerly winds building into the afternoon,
but reduce into the late night.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR/IFR CIGs last through early Saturday
afternoon with some moments of drizzle. CIGS recede back to the
immediate coast into the afternoon, leading to VFR at the TAF sites.
Winds stay light to moderate through the TAF Period. MVFR CIGs
return early Friday evening.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM PDT Sat May 18 2024

Strong northerly winds increase over the weekend. Gale force gusts
build in the northern waters through the day. Expect  hazardous
conditions and steeper wind waves from these building  winds. The
current wind pattern looks to last well into the next  work week
before finally weakening.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Sunday
     for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 3 AM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to
     Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt
     Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
     Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Monday
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

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