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005
FXUS61 KPHI 010716
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
316 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure continues to influence the weather across our region
into early Sunday, then some unsettled conditions could return
later Sunday and continue into Monday. High pressure returns for
Tuesday before an upper level low impacts the area by late Wednesday
through the remainder of the week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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An upper air ridge and surface high pressure are just to the
west of our area this morning. They will both slide east today
bringing another fair weather day to the area. Mostly sunny
skies and dry/mild temperatures are expected. Highs will climb
into the low 80s most spots, but a few mid 80s for the metro
area and some 70s across the shore and southern Poconos. Winds
will be quite light under the high but favor N/NW directions
this morning and S/SW for the afternoon. Winds will be onshore
near the coast this afternoon with a sea breeze expected to
develop.

Fro tonight, mostly clear skies early then some Ci/Cs clouds
increasing over the area. Lows will be milder than the present
night with readings mostly in the 50s and some low 60s across
metro Philadelphia. Light S/SW winds are expected.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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The center of high pressure shifts south and east off the coast
through Sunday as a weak disturbance approaches from the west. This
will bring increasing clouds through the day with high thin
cloudiness early in the day lowering and thickening up by late day.
By late day there could also be some light showers that reach as far
east as our eastern PA zones though it`s worth noting the trend has
been for later timing. For this reason our POPs are only as high as
15 to 20 percent. Generally expect highs in the low to mid 80s
except a bit cooler right near the coast and over the southern
Poconos.

The best chance for showers during the short term portion of the
forecast looks to be later Sunday evening into the overnight as a
deamplifying shortwave moves through. POPs are generally around
50 to 60 percent and it`s also possible there could be some
embedded thunderstorms. We are not expecting any severe weather
or flooding however. Generally expect lows in the low to mid 60s
and it will also start to become a bit more humid as dew points
rise into the low 60s.

Some showers may linger into Monday as the system slowly departs.
Also, with high pressure to our north this will help to set up a
east to northeast low level flow which will keep it a bit cooler
compared to the weekend. Expect highs mostly in the middle to upper
70s to around 80 in a few spots.

High pressure builds back in from the north Monday night with drying
conditions and lows mostly in the upper 50s to low 60s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure builds back in For Tuesday bringing a partly to mostly
sunny sky. The center of the high will actually be just offshore
though so this will result in winds out of the east keeping it
cooler near the coast compared to inland. Generally expect highs in
the 70s within about 30 to 40 miles of the NJ coast as well as much
of central and southern Delaware with low 80s through much of the I-
95 corridor extending into eastern PA and northern NJ. This brief
respite of fair weather may be short lived, however, as a large
upper level low starts to dig in as it moves south and east out
of Canada through the mid to late week. There is some
uncertainty on the timing of it`s arrival though so it`s
possible much of Wednesday could remain dry before showers
arrive late day or at night. We stayed close to the NBM with the
forecast which brings in about a 30 percent chance of showers
by late day. Beyond this time Thursday is looking to be quite
unsettled with widespread rain/showers likely and evening some
thunderstorms possible. Unsettled weather with showers may
persist right through the end of the week into next weekend as
the large upper level low looks to become nearly stationary over
the Great Lakes. Temperatures through the long range should be
fairly close to average for this time of year.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

.Today... VFR. FEW or SCT daytime Cu or some Ci at times.
Highly variable winds with mostly N/NW this morning and then
mostly SW by afternoon. Winds mostly 5 TO 10 knots most areas.
Sea breeze expected KACY/KMIV with a possible push inland to
other sites after 20Z/21Z. High confid except wind direction
fcst and sea breeze effects.

.Tonight... VFR conditions expected. Ci?Cs clouds increasing
overnight. Patchy rural fog possible. Calm or very light/variable
winds. High confid.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR through the day but sub VFR conditions possible at
night as some showers move in.

Monday...Mainly VFR, though some sub-VFR cigs could linger.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR

Wednesday...Mainly VFR to start the day with sub VFR conditions
possible late day or at night as showers arrive.
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&&

.MARINE...
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High pressure situated just west of the waters this morning will
crest over the waters tonight. Fair weather is expected through
tonight. Winds will be mostly from the North/Northwest this morning
around 10 knots. This afternoon, winds will switch to South or
Southwest at 10 to 15 knots. A couple gusts close to 20 knots
are possible. The S/SW winds will continue tonight.

Outlook...

Sunday through Wednesday...No marine headlines anticipated.

Rip Currents...

Today will see northwest winds around 10 mph which will become
south or southeast later in the day. Breaking waves will be 1
to 2 feet. This will once again result in a LOW risk for the
development of dangerous rip currents along the New Jersey and
Delaware beaches. Similar conditions expected Sunday.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

Rip currents occur often in the vicinities of jetties and
piers. Utilize any guarded beaches if venturing out into the
water.
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&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Fitzsimmons
NEAR TERM...OHara
SHORT TERM...Fitzsimmons
LONG TERM...Fitzsimmons
AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/OHara
MARINE...Fitzsimmons/OHara/Staff