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972
FXUS65 KREV 182117
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
217 PM PDT Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

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A low pressure system will drop into the region and bring cooler
temperatures, afternoon breezes and a 10-20% chance of showers
through the upcoming week. Right now, it looks like temperatures
will gradually warm again over the Memorial Day weekend with storm
chances remaining low.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...

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Late Afternoon/Tonight:

There remains a 20-35% chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly
near and south of Bridgeport and Hawthorne through early evening
with gusty outflows 30-40 mph, brief heavy rain, lightning and
small hail. Increasing westerly flow and drying as evident in
ridgetop winds and WV imagery will keep things stable for the rest
of the Sierra and western NV through this evening. Breezy west
winds with gusts 25-35 mph will gradually slow this evening. There
will be a brief 2-3 hour window early this evening (5-8pm) when
winds could approach 30 mph on Pyramid Lake. So locally choppy
conditions will develop late afternoon through sundown.

Sunday-Monday:

Generally dry and more stable all areas although cannot completely
rule out a few showers across west central NV as a front works
southward Sunday afternoon per the HREF/NAM. Another breezy day
is in store with W-NW winds, gusts 25-35 mph - strongest south of
I-80. Winds will shift northerly Sunday night-Monday. Temperatures
will cool each day with Monday the coolest day when afternoon
temperatures may struggle to reach 60 degrees in Sierra valleys
and 70 degrees for lower western NV valleys.

Tuesday-Memorial Day Weekend:

A reinforcing front is expected midweek (Wed-Thu) which will keep
temperatures from changing significantly through Saturday.
Temperatures will oscillate around seasonal averages with daytime
breezes persisting. Shower chances remain low (less than 20%) as
the best moisture/instability remain over the eastern Great Basin.
If something pops, the most favorable location would be along the
Sierra south of Lake Tahoe. But it will be dry for most areas.
There are signs of a more zonal/lighter flow with temperatures
warming late in the Memorial Day weekend.

Hohmann
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&&

.AVIATION...

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* 30-hr Operating Period (through 20/06Z): There is a 20-30%
  chance of Thunderstorms mainly near and south of a KBAN-KHTH-
  KU31 line, including KMMH through 03Z. Gusty outflow winds to
  25-35 kts, lightning and small hail are possible around stronger
  cells. Otherwise, W-NW winds 10-15 kts, gusts 20-25 kts (locally
  30 kts), will gradually diminish after sundown. VFR Sunday with
  WNW winds 15-20 kts shifting to the NNW 5-15 kts after 20/03Z.

* Upcoming Week (Mon-Fri): Trough will prevail with daytime
  breezes persisting. There may be a few showers/storms near the
  Sierra or along any frontal passages, but right now the chances
  are low and less than 20%.

Hohmann
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&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$