-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
766
FXUS65 KREV 210924
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
224 AM PDT Tue May 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

-- Changed Discussion --
Several upper level waves will bring periods of afternoon
breezes and seasonal temperatures this week. There may even be a
storm or two in the Sierra Friday. Look for a general warming
trend region wide late in the Memorial Day weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.DISCUSSION...

-- Changed Discussion --
Key Points:

* Temperatures will bounce up and down around seasonal normals
  with Wednesday being the warmest day of the week. Then a general
  warming trend starts early next week.

* Plan on typical afternoon breezes through the week. Coinciding
  with passage of attendant short wave troughs, Wednesday and
  Saturday will see enhanced afternoon breezes spreading across
  western NV.

* There is still a 10-15% chance for some Sierra showers and
  isolated thunder Thursday/Friday afternoon into the holiday
  weekend, possibly a bit higher Friday afternoon.

Details:

Little change from previous forecast discussion. The wave of cooler
below seasonal average overnight lows are projected to rebound into
more seasonal values through the remainder of this week. A short
wave ridge racing across the region later Tuesday will help boost
Wednesday daytime highs that will be perched mostly in the 70s
across western NV with some lower valley areas reaching into the low
80s. Sierra locations with benefit from this temporary hiatus in
temperatures with Wednesday daytime highs topping out in the
upper 50s and 60s. Clear skies, dry conditions, and a cooler air
mass reinforced with passage of each successive upper short-wave
trough will keep temperatures near seasonal averages this week.
Therefore, dont look for any worthwhile warming until later in
the holiday weekend into next week.

Several troughs either brush-by or drop back-door like through the
region this week. The first upper wave will pass over the region
Wednesday that is projected to enhance our typical afternoon breezes.
As far as the week is concerned, the highest wind gusts will peak
this day with wind gusts to 35-40 mph mixing down into lower valley
areas of western NV.  Some of the more wind prone areas look to see
gusts reaching 50 mph in the afternoon. The direct result will be
bumpy aviation conditions across higher terrain of the Sierra
eastward into western NV, and choppy surfaces on area lakes. As
we move towards late spring/summer, fire concerns need to be kept
in mind. Regional fuels and vegetation are not in a state to cause
any significant fire spread, but we want to avoid any activities
that could bring about an early season fire especially during
these periods of stronger breezes.

There is even a slight chance (15-20%) of a few showers passing
across far northeast CA, and far northern Washoe County close to the
OR border later this afternoon into the evening. Subsequent upper
waves will bring a potential for some showers and an isolated
storm or two Thursday afternoon along the Sierra crest with an
even better potential (15-25% chance) later Friday afternoon.

Memorial Day Weekend: Looking at a general warming trend with
afternoon breezes continuing over the holiday weekend. There will
also be a lingering shower and thunderstorm potential across
higher terrain of the Sierra as well (less than 15%). Some
ensemble simulations are stubbornly holding fast to that notion
going into this weekend. For the most part, the weekend is looking
dry but if you plan on recreating in the Sierra back-country
during the Memorial Day weekend, its advised to have an escape
plan handy to minimize any harm from an increased lightning
threat.

-Amanda
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...

-- Changed Discussion --
* VFR conditions will continue for main terminals with easterly
  winds 10 kt or less for area main terminals today. Increased
  northeast flow above FL100 may continue to produce periods of
  light to moderate turbulence west of the Sierra crest till
  15-18Z this morning.

* Several upper-level troughs passing over the region this week
  will bring afternoon breezes that will be enhanced Wednesday
  with gust to 25-30kts, near normal temperatures, and some late-
  day showers and thunderstorms mainly over the Sierra Friday
  afternoon. VFR conditions will still prevail outside of any
  showers/thunderstorms. Look for an increased chance for periods
  of light to moderate mountain wave turbulence especially across
  the Sierra and eastward when FL100 winds top 30-35kts,
  especially Wed/Sat.

* A warming trend will take place Memorial Day weekend with very
  low chances for showers and thunderstorms (less than 15%).

-Amanda
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$